SPY vs SPY

I have created a new algorithm intended to FORCAST the movement of the S & P. I will not provide any code at this time. My purpose of this thread is to allow those interested to follow along as I test my work.

I will provide two predictions, one short term and one long. I will trade the SPY and provide a daily update on the actual price of the S & P in relation to my target as well as the value of my position

Here are the Forcasts


Short term - S& P target 2129 on Wednesday 4/29

Account Activity

04/27/2015 Buy To Open 1 SPY MayWk1 211 Call $1.95 ($209.97) Total ($209.97)

Bought 1 call contract. Weekly expiration and one position in the money. Plan to exit Wednesday afternoon.

Current Value 1.02

Profit / Loss -93.00


Long term - S & P target 2166 by June 8th

Account Activity

04/27/2015 Buy To Open 10 SPY Jul15 212 Call $4.87 $15.00 $0.24 ($4,885.24)

Bought 10 call contracts. July expiration and one position in the money. Plan to exit around June 8th

Current Value 4.16

Profit / Loss -710.00


Progress Chart


S & P 2121.07





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/27/2015 08:57PM by mtut.

Great thread title.

Looking forward to following your progress.

OMG. That is too funny.

I always got a kick out of those spy vs spy cartoon strips from MAD magazine. Good one.

Sorry Mtut, didn't mean to hijack your thread. I'll give it back now

Short term - S& P target 2129 on Wednesday 4/29

Account Activity

04/27/2015 Buy To Open 1 SPY MayWk1 211 Call $1.95 ($209.97) Total ($209.97)

Bought 1 call contract. Weekly expiration and one position in the money. Plan to exit Wednesday afternoon.

Current Value 1.34

Profit / Loss -61.00


Long term - S & P target 2166 by June 8th

Account Activity

04/27/2015 Buy To Open 10 SPY Jul15 212 Call $4.87 $15.00 $0.24 ($4,885.24)

Bought 10 call contracts. July expiration and one position in the money. Plan to exit around June 8th

Current Value 4.38

Profit / Loss -490.00


Progress Chart


S & P 2114.76





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/2015 09:15PM by mtut.

Needless to say that my formula needs some tinkering. The S & P has reached a high of 2120 since my entry and thus the short term prediction was a failure. I suspect that the long term will miss as well.

I suppose that all great inventors have many more failures than successes!

Sometimes knowing what doesn't work can aid you in discovering what does work. [www.youtube.com]

Was kind of shocked when you said you were seeing a bullish move.
Using the GW discipline, I got into some Puts that same day on one of the indexes - and may or may not be still in them................

$RUT has paid well this month!!

Actually, this represents my attempt to use non conventional methods to measure market direction. Might prove to be without merit but I am enjoying thinking outside the box.

Is $RUT small cap. Been reading a lot about small cap stocks doing well this time of year

So let me get this straight mtut....You don't know what RUT is but you are taking the time to develop algorithms to predict SPY moves? Tell you what. You keep tinkering and thinking outside the box like most engineers and leave it up to the rest of us to make $$$$. (Gary proves to be more right every day)

I am sorry but I did not realize that this forum is intended to solidify the WSB teachings but thank you, Imaohere, I WILL continue doing what I do as I derive a great deal of pleasure from my tinkering. It may be hard for some to admit but not everyone cares to trade like Gary or even knows who he is. Perhaps there is an interest in 'alternative' trading methods. So I'll tell you what, you trade the way you want and make all the $$$$ you can, happy for you, but don't assume that yours is the only game in town!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/06/2015 08:24AM by mtut.

LMAOhere,

Man....not sure what it was that mtut said or did to elicit such a nasty response. Clearly unless mtut is trading your money your thoughts on the matter have no bearing.

I happen to trade the GW system and it is certainly one that works....but certainly not the only system that works or will ever work. Clearly there are some people on this site that trade in funky ways but after all.....what are you to care if they go broke over and over again.....if I remember correctly.....Gary hit the same speed bumps along the way.

Furthermore, be careful riding that high horse.....the fall is always messy!!

FM

It wasn't a nasty response. It was a direct honest question. Why would I want someone trading my money that admits (in other threads) "trading is a hobby"? That isn't riding a high horse. Its sound logic. People who succeed in the market don't approach their money frivolously. Its serious business. I also question your assertion that "another's thoughts on the matter have no bearing." If that were true, would their even be a point of creating a forum site for discussions by individuals attempting to show others new (failed) algorithms??? Maybe it's the "failed" part of this that most attract their attention to? No surprise then, that many appear to be struggling with understanding the process of success in the market when focusing in this manner.

This site is clearly a GW centric themed trading board. Reading the countless threads regarding class notes, questions, specific trades, charts, techniques, information, etc. is evident. Its ridiculous to claim otherwise. I agree, there are other ways to make money in the market, but the countless GW "students" I have read here might choose to be a little more honest with themselves and remove the thought that they are actually Students of GW. Most are not even in the room.

Most appear to be here looking for a self help group in order to improve their hopes of making money someday/somehow and hoping a "mechanical" secret will be shared with them that makes it easier to do. IMO there is very little offered that will help long term consistency in trading to be realized here.....no matter what system you are trying to use. Why??? Because consistently making money in the market isn't a mechanical thing. It is an Art. And anyone who understands mastering an art, understands it requires following a master instructor's teachings and experience, followed by countless hours ALONE in the process while mastering the craft (as it was taught) by doing it repeatedly. In other words, in this example, successful mastery is not learned or accurately experienced by taking the words of "tinkerers" experiencing their "pleasure" for trying to figure their hobby out (unless your hobby is simply for the pleasure of sharing how to lose money). What kind of person(ality) would really want to keep tabs on that???

I will move on. Good luck.

Granted, RTT and it's forum, is the handy work of students of WSB and most topics do pertain in some manner to Gary's teachings. While some within this forum proclaim success utilizing his techniques, I have not. However, my failure has not deterred me from exploring other options that might fit my trading personality. So excuse me if I term what I do as a hobby but how else would you describe a process where you practice something until you become proficient at it. And if I never MASTER the ART of trading then at least I enjoyed the ride. After all, life is meant to be enjoyed.

I happen to know a man who has never heard of Gary Williams, yet trades for a good living so yes Virginia there is more than one way to trade the market. I can't trade like him either, for various reasons, but his success instills in me the desire to share different ideas and techniques because one never knows what might inspire others. Folks are free to read or disregard any thread contained in this forum. I would like to think that those that have commented on SPY vs SPY are not looking to me for any Holy Grail but perhaps a little insight or just some levity.

mtut Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Granted, RTT and it's forum, is the handy work of
> students of WSB and most topics do pertain in some
> manner to Gary's teachings. While some within this
> forum proclaim success utilizing his techniques, I
> have not. However, my failure has not deterred me
> from exploring other options that might fit my
> trading personality. So excuse me if I term what I
> do as a hobby but how else would you describe a
> process where you practice something until you
> become proficient at it. And if I never MASTER the
> ART of trading then at least I enjoyed the ride.
> After all, life is meant to be enjoyed.
>
> I happen to know a man who has never heard of Gary
> Williams, yet trades for a good living so yes
> Virginia there is more than one way to trade the
> market. I can't trade like him either, for various
> reasons, but his success instills in me the desire
> to share different ideas and techniques because
> one never knows what might inspire others. Folks
> are free to read or disregard any thread contained
> in this forum. I would like to think that those
> that have commented on SPY vs SPY are not looking
> to me for any Holy Grail but perhaps a little
> insight or just some levity.


This is exactly the kind of answer I would expect from someone who hasn't attained consistent success in the market. In all seriousness, I am not attempting to attack you personally or intentionally singling you out over anyone else I've read here. But someone who is purposefully attempting to master their art doesn't approach their effort as a hobby. Would you want your family doctor to approach his art of medicine as a hobby? Would you expect the most successful scientists, painters, musicians, athletes, military heroes, (even firemen) throughout history to have attained mastery of their craft by treating that goal (assuming your goal is to actually succeed in the market) as a mere "hobby"?

"Levity" is exactly the opposite of what one needs if they have a true commitment to success (in anything). Your fickle attitude to this is exactly why anyone on this forum (who is actually serious about making money in the market) should NEVER consider your insight as serious means to learn consistency in the market at this point. In one reply alone, you have already admitted to not being able to trade the way two other known successful traders do. Why is that? Probably your desire to achieve "levity" (and actually accepting "cant" ) over any real success through consistent process.

I agree with you. There are a thousand ways to trade the market effectively. Unfortunately it appears attempting to find the process that meets your personality requirements wont allow you to focus long enough to learn the necessary components of any of those systems that have already proven successful to countless people so you go "exploring". The market cares nothing of your personality or what you need from it. A successful trader needs to "control" his personality and unemotionally learn the art of the trade.

Other's successes should instill in you the desire to actually succeed FIRST over all else. Otherwise the only thing you end up sharing are ideas that could indeed create financial losses for individuals that are (supposedly) visiting a site for valuable insights into how to achieve financial gains......

Best of luck on your journey.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/06/2015 04:03PM by lmaohere.

I commend you, lmaohere, on your passion and desire to master the art of trading and taking the time to contribute to this forum. If you put a thousand people in a room and had them read the above exchange then 97% or better would agree that your initial and subsequent responses were rather abrasive. How does berating someone in a public forum benefit you with mastering your craft? How does it help you to become a better trader? What mtut is or is not doing should not be relevant to your goals and aspirations. The professional and successful scientists, painters, musicians, athletes, military heroes, and firemen throughout history got that way from extreme focus on their respective crafts to the point that they did not worry what others were doing. If mtut wants to treat this as a hobby it is his prerogative. Scolding will not force someone to see things your way or get someone to change their mind. Not to mention the most successful in history failed the most while having to tune out the crowd that continued telling them they shouldn't do something, it will never work, etc. Mtut is one step closer to success as he can now check off one more thing that doesn't work.

I wish you all continued success and prosperity!

NCT

So under your premise, anyone who reads this forum should only be interested in mastering the trading process. There is no room for civil discussion of matters that do not advance one's progress or might cause them to think alternatively. I agree that someone could take information contained herein and recklessly trade their money away. The same can be said about proven methods. It is up to the individual to ascertain the validity and the usefulness of any information presented to them. If you scroll to the top of this thread you will see my opening statement.

"I have created a new algorithm intended to FORCAST the movement of the S & P. I will not provide any code at this time. My purpose of this thread is to allow those interested to follow along as I test my work ". Clearly noted that this is a testing process. No trading concepts provided or implied. I would wager that most people would not make any trades based on my predictions

Sure, I want my doctor to be an expert in his field, but I endear those innovators that are not afraid to seek new ways to build upon their knowledge (is that like thinking outside of the box?). Besides, I am sure everyone knows someone who started their successful career as a side job or hobby. Again "hobby" for me, means that I am practicing until I find something that works for me. It is not a gauge of the effort or seriousness that I apply to my trading or the sharing of information.

Actually I can't trade like the man I know because he trades stocks and his method involves a significant amount of cash which I do not have at this time. So it has nothing to do with "can't" or "won't" as you erroneously suggested. Also, my mention of personality, was about time frames and market accessibility, how I can trade within my constraints

I wish YOU well in trading



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/06/2015 05:19PM by mtut.

You guys using big words. Makes Hulk's head hurt. HULK SMASH!!!!..... There, that's better


I don't think "Doctors" are a good example to use in proving a point. After all, their business is called a 'practice'. I don't think they ever get it right. All they do is 'practice medicine'. Hehehe