CF is a beast

If you want to take a peek at a stock that simply lives up to it's historical performances, try CF. A person can not have much trading knowledge at all and take a look at RTT's historical performance reports on this company and nearly throw a dart at it!!!! I would not suggest that,but wow, this stock has lived up to it's expectations since I have been trading. I have gotten to a point that I will not trade this stock unless it is going in the direction of it's historical data-Period.

On the 7th it was apparent that CF was going to run in the direction of RTT historical data because we had a HRFP on my 55. The previous days high was broken, and so many other indicators screamed, Its a Trade! My smaller charts leading up to the 55 were also screaming for an entry. I also felt that the indicators were in development on my larger charts (233 and D), so this time, I knew I was going to ride this one out- especially after getting some "fat underneath me".

I use a 8 MA as a major indicator for exiting a trade. I get a close below it on my decision chart, I exit the trade. I use that indicator exclusively- only if I am already Happy in Seattle. If I am recently in a trade, I will use other indicators such as areas of support and resistance and trendlines. Anyway, I entered the trade off my 13 (action) and 55 (decision) on the 7th. It is rare for me to be comfortable entering based on a 55 chart but this one was a no brainer. They tried to shake me out on the 8th, but I had enough under me to weather the storm and hold true to my rule (leave when getting a close below the 8 MA). Well, I am still in the trade. If the distance from my candles stay as far away from the 8 MA as they appear, there is no way I will wait for a close below the 8MA. I am not interested in giving any of this back. This has been one of my best trades.

I am taking the family to Daytona Beach in April. I will take the profit from this trade (-taxes) and use for that trip. I do not want to whipsawed overnight, so I admit, I am a bit shaken. If this thing plummets overnight, my family and I will be picnicing in our backyard for our spring vacation.

Have fun trading!

Rookie,
I am new to this forum, having gotten away from the market for the past few years. I went as far as RTP with GW about 6 years ago, but never really made the required effort to succeed. I am coming back with a renewed commitment to do what is necessary to master this skill. Reading over the past posts, I have to commend you for your determination and willingness to share with others some of your journey. I have learned much from you and others from the discussions of thought process, platform set-up, and successful(and unsuccessful) trades.I do have a question on this past trade that maybe you would be so kind to clear up for me. You stated that one reason for getting into CF on tuesday(7th) was when the previous day's high was broken. On Monday(6th) the stock opened at about 233.85. This price was not surpassed until noon on the 8th. Am I misinterpreting something here? I ask this question not to challenge you because I really do appreciate the time and effort you and others spend sharing your expertise.

tppplayer32,

Sorry guys, I am just getting back on the forum after working through the weekend.

Thanks for pointing that mistake out, and I apologize. You are correct. The previous day's high had not been broken as I stated, and as I looked back at the trade and my notes, I discounted the break of the previous day's high because before the close on the 7th, I had a break on my trendline and an established area of resistance had been broken. I felt CF gapped up and immediate lost the battle and headed down, selling off some steam. When it bounced off the bottom BB, broke my T-Line, broke my resistance, was totally solid on the RTT historical data, I was in the trade. This is the impulsive "thing" in me. I guess I just assumed the previous day's high was broken- Heck, who knows what I was thinking. I am like Rain Man, I see it and can trade it, but breaking it all down can be a challenge sometimes.

Great trade Rookie...

Using support your entry was spot on. Strong support on CF came on the close of the 7th and evidence on the 8th on Daily chart. Using the gap from 12/3 - 12/4 you can see the stock bounced off the center gap and 20 ma to gain mo-jo. Using that info along with RTT it couldn't miss. Enjoy Daytona Beach in April...you lucky rascal!

Here's a neat thing...try this and study it for a while...using a regression line start at the bottom of the BB of CF on the daily which is 7/1 and draw it out to the close yesterday. See the play in between these regression lines? Nice huh? This regression line works well for ups and downs. Only use it however when a stock reaches the bottom or top of a BB. Another note about CF it never touched the bottom of the BB since 7/1. See why I love CF?

Now you can follow the ups and downs... after drawing the regression line starting at 7/1 whenever CF hits the top of the band draw take regression line where the CANDLE IS ON THE BB and extend the regression line down to the lowest candle before there is a change in direction. In this case it would be from the candle of 7/30 to 8/20. So in between the pattern of 7/1 see the pull backs than be played?

Although regression lines are suppose to be drawn daily I do't do that. I look for patterns and CF certainly gives you one and in my opinion one of the hottest. I love this stock and someday I will own shares and ...gotta stop I am drooling!



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/14/2014 09:19AM by Darcy2.