The Market

Thanks Trader.

Confirmed lower highs and made lower lows on the daily market charts today. I am a little surprised by the less than expected reaction in the VIX, but the market makers will be adding some cushion to the option pricing causing it to rise. There are never any absolutes in the market but the daily charts LH / LL confirmation usually leads to more short term down with increased volatility; sharp swings in both directions. There should be a lot of support on the S&P in the 2270'ish area, just not sure how quick or how long it will take to get there or if it will hold when it does.

Bull markets remind me of a train, it always takes more time and requires more effort than I usually think it will take to turn it around, so having patience helps in swing trading and never fight the market because it will also drag you down the tracks just like a train while doing as much damage to your account as possible. Always focus on trading well and protecting your assets, or as Trader said "go to the sidelines", because cash really is a strategic position.

The Markets appear to be attempting to mount a rally right here from their rising 50 day moving averages. Its possible we see a 2 - 3 week rally from this point. Serious questions, how robust the rally? a retest into earnings already? a retest of new highs? If the market holds for the next several weeks into earnings than most likely new highs will come with those gains. If this rally falters in the next couple days we have much bigger problems ahead of us. As Trump would say, HUGE. In 25 years of trading i must say its a rare event to snap back from a selloff that was well in gear to the downside after a multi year uptrend. I'm thinking sucker rally?, relief rally? short squeeze? what ever you want to call it, there is no doubt we are popping from here for a bit. Can the markets hold? Many stocks already went into a correction, a decline of 10% or more. was that enough to bring buyers back in?. Also something important to remember, strong selloffs are usually met with dead cat bounces.

Progress, what is this market telling you? what do you think?

Over the course of the last two weeks the markets have had the characteristics of a blender, ultra choppy giving traders whiplash. I believe the market is now ready to mount a rally for the next 2 - 3 weeks starting sometime early next week, moving into earnings. I do not believe this rally will be special. It will be underwhelming. It will be money trapping. I believe the market will begin to falter before earnings season is even over and resume its down leg that it already started. There is no conviction by the big boys right now, thus there will not be enough jet fuel to propel the market higher for long. It appears they are selling a lot more than buying. Several key leaders are now set up nicely though to take this market higher, but only for a short while. In about 2 1/2 weeks I will exit this market and not reenter again until a good leg up appears to take shape. This market has become high risk. Trading odds are no longer in our favor. If we do not get some kind of rally started by mid week I will be super surprised. I expect it. This is what markets do, they pull more suckers in. This is what they are good at. Masters of deception. If you must trade watch yourself. If you are already in, use this opportunity to exit when the market rises.

No rally in the markets last week. not even some semblance of stabilization. zip, nada. shockingly Mr Pessimistic still believes we may get an upside pop this week. several securities are oversold on the RSI hourly and Daily charts. The VIX also appears to be overbought short term. Stocks are also now moving back into correction territory. down 10% or more. Just the very lack of a rally at this point in earnings season is a red flag. Though a rally or not is of little significance at this point, what is of greater concern is what happens after earnings. I expect the major indicies to drop at least 15%, I say at least. This means many securities will drop 15% to 30% or more. The indicies will hold up better because of the rigging. they will use the go to leaders to hold up the indicies. It will not be the end of mankind as we know it, just another transfer of wealth that occurs every couple years. The only externals I believe that could save this market from the selloff I believe is coming is either a massive U.S. war to keep the U.S economy pumping or corporate tax reductions. In writing, and made into the law of the land. God forbid we get the war. as for the tax reductions, we should have had them already. but we shall see. I subscribe to this free newsletter. ultra educational and you cant beat free.

[www.advisorperspectives.com]

Big week for the worlds financial markets coming up. French elections this weekend, also Trump to sign executive order to review tax and financial reform laws and a tax proposal announcement by Wednesday. Debt ceiling debate this week, possible government shutdown this week? Any one of these events could send the markets in a tail spin. Right now the markets are in a bad news is really bad news and good news is just blah news mode. I can typically take down 20 - 30k a month in the markets 75% of the time. last month? 5k, this month, 4k. I'am now underperforming myself. The market is deteriorating at a rapid clip and not giving up the goods like it used to, how could I not. The path of least resistance is down. Even should all these events come out good I still believe the markets will finish what they started, The earnings season we are having so far is a good indicator of this.


Earnings Release Announcements ( Market Leaders )

GS minus 11 pts in 2 days

IBM minus 10 pts in 1 day

NFLX minus 10 pts in 2 days

Bad news is finally bad news and good news is just blah.


6 week percentage Losses As of Friday 4/22/17

MCK minus 10%

AMGN minus 12%

GS minus 13%

IBM minus 10%


Major market leaders have now begun to surpass the 10% correction zones and are now moving closer into bear market territory. Trust me when I tell you it wont take much to hit the -20% plus marks. Stocks are over the top overpriced, Yet, there is still the chance the market can pop higher from here over the course of the next 1 - 2 weeks. For me its not worth the risk. I have gone to cash as I always do in times of uncertainty. When the markets go into money trapping mode, gapping up big 1 day gapping down big the next, this makes for a treacherous environment to pull capital out, to win, to succeed. Trapping mode markets make a mess of your mind, destroy your confidence and make you second guess all that you are as a trader. Better to step aside and keep your mind intact. Good traders shall return and conquer these lands as we always have and always will, for now, its time to rest in these times of chaos.

Impressive earnings rally Monday and Tuesday. Thursday will mark the last day for most of the heavy hitters announcing earnings. Google, Amazon and Baidu announce on Thursday. Monday and Tuesdays rally just undid a lot of technical damage on many of my 48. This market is ultra resilient. All the major indicies crossed over their daily and weekly hulls today. at least the few that were left to crossover. Most of the 13 sectors I follow have also crossed over their daily and weekly hulls. Today we hit new highs in the Russle and Nasdaq. Its possible the Dow 30 and S&P 500 will hit new highs next. Since January 2016 the major market indicies have pushed higher without much more than a 5% correction, Amazing. I'am very curious to see if markets can still continue higher when earnings season is over in the next few days.

Some of my 48 price changes for the day that hammered out multi point gains. ( Rounded Off ) This is just a sampling, there were many others with multi point gains. Is this the beginning of another swing up, or market blow off?. That has yes to be seen.

GS UP 4 PTS
CAT UP 7 PTS
MCD UP 7 PTS
NFLX UP 9 PTS
WHR UP 6 PTS
ANTM UP 4 PTS

MY 48

99% Over daily hull
97% Over weekly hull

Typically these hull stats would be screaming out the market is a buy to me, was the prior March 21 selloff losses listed below enough to send a buy signal to the big boys?, or are they aware of something we don't know?.

March 21 2017

SPX -2.17%
DJI -2.12%
RUT -4.75%
COMP -1.87%

Today - 6 Week % Gains

SPX +2.56
DJI +2.9
RUT +4.89
COMP +4.0

Here is why i still err on the side of caution. Not only am I a student of volume but I'am also a firm believer in the VIX/Market correlation. Over the last 7 days the VIX has drifted back down to its major 5 year support range. Every time the vix hit these levels, where we are now, volatility ensued. Sometimes rather quickly, sometimes it took to a bit. Since January 2016 the VIX has been unable to break its down trendline. It has to break thru eventually. what will be the straw that breaks the camels back. The VIX is now in a wedge if the bottom level holds. I'am using a 5 yr weekly chart. Once again many of my 48 are overbought on the daily weekly and monthly time frames.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/25/2017 03:54PM by Trader.

This market looks like one of those sickly babies they throw over the cliff in 300 Spartans. It looks fragile. Its like a box of chocolate, you never know what your gonna get. Now I want to see what the market leaders that I had talked about will do now that earnings season is over. will those leaders that were down 9% - 10% now move further down into bear market territory?. If they do they may take other leaders with them. Presently only 2 of my 48 are in bear markets. Market breath has been nothing short of appalling. In a nutshell, it stinks. As I have stated for months, this market continues to use key market leaders with large market caps to push higher. The vast majority of securities are not hitting highs with the major indicies. This is a big problem, nevertheless it has not stopped the market from pushing into highs again and again. how many hundreds of billions of dollars are now in at the top? The street knows exactly how much. There is nothing they do not know. Margin is now at the highest rate since the financial crisis of 2007. So many speculators are now in that it would be a great time for a transfer of wealth. The street knows this, and with so few stocks hitting highs it makes trading a hell of a lot more difficult. Without a doubt this is a stock pickers market. This is not a friendly trading environment, this is a dare if you dare environment. More 52 week lows are now starting to show up on my S&P 100 list that I track nightly. A contrarian might suggest great!, exhaustion!, I don't think so. I think Its going to get worse before it gets better. On the flip side most of the major U.S. Corporations have met or exceeded expectations at earnings. good stuff. How long can that continue. The VIX is now set up to rise over the next couple weeks. I expect downside crossovers of all weekly hulls of all the major indicies to coincide with this move if it does actually happen, in days to weeks. The daily charts have already rolled over. This market looks tired. It needs a damn good correction to clear out the excess, all the overbought conditions. With this said, the market finished strong Friday. This baby still has something left in the tank.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/17/2017 06:47PM by Trader.

Thank God I take my own advice and I don't trade the evidence. I have never been a believer in that concept. Yes I trade the facts But I always dig deeper, I look underneath the hood and attempt to see whats the horsepower driving the market. That keeps me out of trouble, for the most part. If i only traded the evidence like so many do I would be feeling major pain right now. The evidence was telling the world all is good. markets are hitting highs followed up by more highs. What the evidence was not telling you was that we have been in a 2 tier market for months now. tier 1 hitting highs and tier 2 in a major bear market. The street and the media don't want you to know this. Its not in their best interest. Your interest is not their best interest. They don't give a crap about you. If there's only one thing you take away from this blog, let it be the education you got from market manipulation. That knowledge alone can help you trade better. The junk they teach in books and so called classes is garbage. The media has taught for over a century that the markets could never be rigged because there are to many market participants. laughable! They failed to mention that most of those participants are nobodies, but the elite with heavy capital at their disposal can do wonders. They say when the markets goes up, They say when the markets go down. There is nothing random about the markets. In 1996 there were 7300 hundred companies trading on U.S. exchanges, now there are less than 3700. Your choices are getting more limited. Since there are so few companies trading now its become easier than ever to rig these markets. As I have stated many times it does not take many stocks to lift all the indicies to put them into high ground, It just takes a few key leaders. Today several things happened. 1. The key leaders that were leading this market got hammered. 2. The market turned down again with strong conviction. That should have surprised no one. 3. Volatility in the VIX went thru the roof. saw that coming as well!. This sell off was so nice that almost all my 48 have worked off their overbought conditions. Another 4 - 5 days of these kind of selloffs and we would be good. Unfortunately markets don't usually work that way. Markets make many more billions from bouncing up and down than going straight down. This gives more participants that think they can beat the market by buying the dips a chance. A chance to get in. A chance to lose. In a prior post I stated only 2 of my 48 were in a bear market. That still holds true. But lets dig a little deeper shall we? My 48 does not give a good picture of whats really happening in the market, This is because I trade expensive leaders for the most part and leaders are the last to get hit. That's not to say there is not some filler in my 48. some I never trade cause they scare me. They are to cheap for me so I stay away. I will eventually replace them, So Instead lets look at the S&P 500.


S&P 500 STATS 5/17/2017

90 Stocks with at least a 20% correction so far. The selloff range for these 90 stocks is 20 - 60 % . So 90 stocks in a bear market. This comes out to be 18% of the S&P 500.

Many use the 200 MA as a market health gauge as well as a bear market indicator. If price is under the 200 MA the security is in a bear market. Using these standards, 184 stocks are under their 200 MA. 184 stocks are in a bear market.

NEW LOWS. 21 stocks hit new lows today.
Is this bad? It sure as hell is not good for a market hitting highs after highs. The masters of illusion have done it again. Fooling the world that all is good. A 2 tier market. And a 2 tier stock pickers market no less!

What now?, I don't expect the market to continue to slam down at this wicked pace. It will continue to churn its way down, with upside bounces along the way. I expect a slow continued selloff. If the selloff does quicken, all the better. lets get this crap over with so the pickins are easy again.

Nothing can stop this beast of a market, not even an internal bear market. all major indicies at highs or testing new highs. market breath has improved in just a couple days and volume is good. Payne's Rising Tide is indicating a breakout is very possible, this may lead to another leg up of at least 2 - 3 weeks. The VIX continues to drop. Since the VIX just had an upside move a couple days ago. we may be looking at 2 - 3 weeks of low volatility? this seems to be the pattern. 2 days ago I entered 2 swing trades. IBM and GS. These two leaders are beaten down, Should the street now go to these two and begin buying to assist in propping the markets it will lift the markets even more. the market caps on these babies is big. Got to give these plays several weeks. I should note the wife says since I just got in this probably marks the top in the market, ahahaha, funny woman. All daily hulls and weekly hulls now good, only the RUT monthly hull is down. So the market has priced in another rate hike in June. There is a 80% chance of a rate hike, markets don't seem to care. 30% of my 48 are overbought on either daily, weekly, or monthly, some are overbought on all 3. All of this complacency cant help me but think of 1999 again and again. So it looks like every time the SPX or DOW drop at least 2% the market bounces back, Is a 2% selloff the buy signal?, It seems to be for the last 3 months. Since the market has had a pop for several days we are probably looking at some minor backfill, but the way this market is moving now I don't see much more than that for a spell.


S&P 500 STATS 5/25/2017

85 Stocks with at least a 20% correction or more.

157 stocks under their 200 MA

12 new lows and a boat load of new highs

In just a couple days the market has improved nicely, and all of these beaten down securities have the ability to snap back from their oversold conditions and lift this market even higher. Stay away from the Russell and don't trade nasdaq small caps. I don't understand the big traders need to keep buying an overbought market, but if that's the way its gonna be then so be it. Keep playing the game and try not to be the last in the musical chairs. Going on vacation. Happy Trading!

Another great indicator released by Robert. I just purchased the Automatic Trend Channels. Its badass. If you love the automatic trend lines like i do your gonna love this one as well. I tested it across my major trading time frames. 15 min, 1 hour, day and week. I also tested it across a wide price range of securities. cheap stocks to expensive stocks. It will not read perfect on every chart on every time frame, what indicator does?, but it will read a high percentage of them on these time frames and see patterns you otherwise would not have seen. I know there are times when we purchase studies/indicators and we are let down because they sometimes don't do what we hoped they would do. Or they don't really fit our trading style, or maybe they just don't work. Like I said, Auto Channels wont read every chart perfectly but it will read enough of them for you to make your money back on this one quickly. I would use it in conjunction with the Auto Trend lines if you already have that one. I review my securities every weekend in the flexible grid format. 15 min, 1 hour, day, and week all side by side. this study will now make it easier for us to catch higher probability trades quickly. It will see what you might not have seen.

Great job on this one Robert.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/02/2017 02:08AM by Trader.

Thank you for the very kind words, Trader.

- robert


Professional ThinkorSwim indicators for the average Joe

Anyone still parked in a 401k? It might be a good time to go to cash. Many corporations allow you to park your money in cash. I strongly suggest it. This is indeed a dangerous time. We are now coming into the most volatile months of the year, August and September. Presently about 1/3 of the securities in the S&P 100 and S&P 500 are in a bear market, Yet the markets have pushed higher with fewer and fewer stocks. It is a song I have been singing for awhile. If you haven't made any money or have had a tough time making money this is why. What does it cost you to go to cash?, Not a damn penny. Yet if the markets do selloff you are parked in cash preserving your capital. When the markets turn back up, you are ready. You have nothing to lose. After September it should get better due to seasonality. Look at it as kind of a hedge. A hedge against possible turbulence. This is an absolute no brainer to me. Its easy yet to some, to most, its difficult, This is because most humans on the planet just buy and hold. Long ago when the markets appeared that they were going to selloff I asked my wife what I should do. Shes my wife so I thought it respectful to ask her. she said stay in. I did. It cost me 150,000 thousand on my 401k. It took about 4 years for my 401k to recover. Guess what, I don't ask anymore. Of course I'm not the same trader I was 15 years ago. When I worked for a major corporation I regularly traded my 401k capital. to me it was like a brokerage account. I bought and sold what ever I wanted. not all corporations allow this. I was lucky mine did. Now what if the market continues to push higher?. If the market continues its push higher is will be kicking and scratching all the way just as it is doing now because to many stocks are already in a bear market. This type of trading environment is tough. leave this type of trading to fast traders. day traders. That's about all this market is good for right now, and has been for the last 3 - 4 months. This is a i'm gonna screw you market. And remember, no holy grail indicator will save you, for none exist. Gary Williams can not save you here either. Only you can protect you. What ever you decide, good luck!

Great advice,

Make sure you are always looking for a signal to get out. I can not believe we keep making new highs.

I am limited to getting in and out every 15 days. So far for the year I am up 26% by doing this. However I treat the stock market as a job while most put the money in their 401k and never look back.

The funny think is I have tried to offer assistance to others, friends, family, co workers. I have had 1 person out of around 50 take me up on it. Your advice is sound and on this forum it will be heard and probably benefit a lot of people.

Thanks!

Sadly there aren't many active folks on this forum. Often time they will just check in from time to time without ever logging in.

bryce3000 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great advice,
>
> Make sure you are always looking for a signal to
> get out. I can not believe we keep making new
> highs.
>
> I am limited to getting in and out every 15 days.
> So far for the year I am up 26% by doing this.
> However I treat the stock market as a job while
> most put the money in their 401k and never look
> back.
>
> The funny think is I have tried to offer
> assistance to others, friends, family, co workers.
> I have had 1 person out of around 50 take me up on
> it. Your advice is sound and on this forum it will
> be heard and probably benefit a lot of people.
>
> Thanks!

That's impressive. Mutual funds or stocks?

Mutual funds, I can not trade stocks in my 401k. The only stock I can trade is my employers

Traders beware! The VIX hit a 20-year record low this morning which would be an extreme. The probability of a change is high, therefore higher volatility in the market is probability not far away and should not be a surprise. Depending on your level of skill in this craft, I would suggest you consider taking one of the following actions; getting out of the market with real money, decrease the size of your trades to adjust for the higher risk or decrease your risk through money management principles. Just my two cents worth. Trade well.

The VIX went below yesterday’s 20-year record this morning and volatility began to show up in the Nasdaq and S&P this afternoon. It always seems weird when you see something about to happen in the charts then it seems that something happens in the world to accommodate the chart. Hope nobody was surprised!

GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS GAPS

Does the street believe traders are that stupid to still be buying the upside gaps with the assumption that the upside gaps signify demand? this is what the street has taught for decades. do traders still believe it?. I do, but not right now. I believe they are fake, there is no demand, and this is still a pump and dump dog and pony show. On Thursday the S&P and DOW hit the magic sweet spot for buying. they hit the -2% marks. these puny drops have brought in buyers at these levels for the past year. Manipulation at its best. I must say the boys on the street have this down to an art. The VIX exploded up 5 pts on 8/10 only to move down 3 pts 2 days later. Lets face it, these are no longer free markets. Everything is controlled. The great Paul Tudor Jones once said you can only manipulate the markets for so long, they will eventually revert to where they should be. I no longer believe that. Market Makers, banks, and other big guns lead the little people astray by pushing the markets where they will it. The major indicies are still within striking distance of new highs while the broader market marches closer to bear market territory. The general public does not see this. I went out to dinner a few days ago with some friends and Melisa said i think we should put our money back to work, The market keeps going higher and higher. Her husband said no the market is weak beneath the surface. Hes right, the pillars are cracking, But this is what the public sees because this is what the street wants them to see. There is to much money involved to be speaking the truth. They never have and never will. When garbage stocks like TSLA are at 363.00 a share and they are still losing money watch yourself. Of the 53 stocks I now follow, most are moving down.


My 53 STATS:

Bear Market -20% or more ( 4 stocks )

Near Bear ( 2 stocks )

Correction -10% or more ( 10 stocks )

Near Correction ( 10 stocks )

This market will continue to correct down until it doesn't. Presently it appears only about 20 - 30 leaders are being used to push the U.S.markets higher. yup, those are big leaders. they also use the beaten down stocks by rotating them up on gaps once in awhile. even the pigs assist in taking the markets higher. I notice no follow thru in buying with these artificial gaps the last couple of days. Gaps up in the morning then selloff throughout the day, then more weak gaps the next morning. rinse and repeat. how many more suckers can we get? As for the VIX on 8/10 It broke thru a 2 year down channel only to pull back. Believe me its gonna pop again, and finally break thru. But honestly there are so many shenanigans going on in this market its really not worth the effort at times. The odds are truly stacked against you.

TSLA ? Garbage? Seems like a great stock to "trade"



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/17/2017 09:51PM by BigChartTrader.

@ BigChart, I think everyone knows the explosive moves TSLA can make in a day. I have traded the stock myself several times. Yes I'm dabbling in the Nadaq again, and its still the wild west!. TSLA can litterally move up 10 pts and down 15 pts within a 5 min bar or less. They don't call it a rocket for nothing. Many stocks in the Nasdaq can do this, so many traders chasing momentum, but you have to have a special temperament to play these. Your right though, as a tradeable instrument its awesome. This is not why I called it garbage though. I did so because of price, It does not make any money yet and its priced at 347 and change and I think they have like a whopping 3 models. Comparing it to Ford it gets crazy. While TSLA makes zero money, they lose, FORD made 2 billion for the quarter on 30 plus billion in revenue yet Its sub 11.00 dollars a share. I could understand ford being at 350 a little better than TSLA, but not by much. If I'm right on this selloff and where its going TSLA should be shaving off at least 100 - 150 pts minimum. Overpriced fluff like these stocks will get killed. The Nasdaq and Russle always get slammed harder than the other Indicies historically because this is where the securities have been bid up the most, Chased for short term gains by short term traders without any basis for fundamentals. AMZN and GOOG should continue to get whacked hard as well. Beginners should stay away from TSLA unless you want to lose a lot of money fast. Something not as fast but also very volatile and good to trade is NFLX and BIDU, beginners should Practice on those. Indeed there is a disconnect on wall street when it comes to equity valuations, and there concepts and perceived notions on forward earnings. Its hyperbole.

The VIX continues to hammer its 2 year declining trendline. I'm thinking it hammers thru by next week. Looks like there gonna let it run. If its able to hold above that trendline I'm betting selling is going to intensify big time. As Nick would say on Left for Dead, a game I love to play on steam, " Shits getting good! ". Roberts Payne's Rising Tide may soon go into an oversold condition on the daily timeframe. I'm using it on the S&P 100 ( 50MA ). It has not been in an oversold condition since 11/04/16. This Indicator is one of my favorites because it gives good lead time to turning points. Also when this study is in oversold condition it means the market has been beaten down nicely. The reverse is true in the overbought condition. It means stocks have been bid up to unsustainable levels. U.S. equity markets have not had a 10% correction since early 2016, should we reach those levels, WE WILL!!! then many stocks will be correcting 10 - 80%. Already in the S&P 500 bear markets are raging in the 20 - 50 % plus range. This train has just left the station. Its gonna to be a bumpy ride.

The Bankster's continue their bone headed morning market gaps. These gaps serve several purposes.

1. Bring in more suckers. ( rookies and many pros cant control themselves. they always have to be in the market at all times )

2. Increase volume ( increase their pocket books )

3. Its gives them better prices to distribute their shares. ( you buy. they sell )

Make no mistake, we are in the Distribution phase of this market cycle, And even while stocks are selling off, the VIX continues to be suppressed. The circus masters know exactly what their doing. As of Friday 28th 2017 50% of all U.S. equities were under their 200 day moving average. That means 50% of U.S. equities are now in a bear market using the 200 MA standard. This market has zero upside momentum. Their is just to much selling. A little gap up, sell sell sell. Another gap up met with still more selling. Presently the Nasdaq is still the strongest out of the major indicie's. AMZN GOOG PCLN TSLA and BIDU, These stocks are what i lovingly call the F____D five. These are the most rigged stocks in the Nasdaq. These 5 can easily eliminate the rest of the stocks in the Nasdaq. The rest are just for show, irrelevant. NFLX is also a player to a point. Take notice, the banksters have now begun to rotate trash stocks. ( beaten down leaders ). Rotating them off their heavily sold off lows to assist to maintain the markets in this steady selling phase to give the illusion things aren't that bad. DON'T BITE. Their is no follow thru. They have also begun bouncing the Russle and small caps, the most beaten down indicie to date. Sector rotation is also in play. Maket leaders are usually the stocks that keep markets near highs. When they begin to use the fallen leaders, and small caps, the markets in trouble.



Market headlines, prior week. Who writes this crap anyway?


Dow surges as stock market looks to snap out of funk 8/22/17 ( good luck with that )


Trump's comments roil capital markets 8/23/17 ( no they don't. bear operations are in full gear )

IBM Shares Are at a Price That You Almost Can't Believe 8/23/17 ( oh i believe it!, I also believe its going much lower )

Fearful of awakening market bears, Yellen and Draghi to tread softly at Jackson Hole 8/24/17 ( news flash, The bears are already awake )

Trump and his GOP allies could roil markets this fall 8/24/17 ( markets are already roiled and selling off )

Yellen: Financial rules have made economy stronger 8/25/17 ( lame. no they haven't. )

Why Amazon slashing prices at Whole Foods won't cause deflation 8/25/17 ( All the sudden Whole foods is so huge its going to cause deflation ? Laughable. stupidity at its best.

Inflation, jobs, manufacturing data expected to push low-volume stock market around 8/27/17 ( Over the last 16 days the market had 10 above average volume days. Up days have been light volume, Down days have been heavy volume. Distribution. Don't know what the writers are smoking but I want some )

This is my last post for a little bit. I expect little change in the U.S. equity markets for the next couple weeks, I believe the selling will continue and possibly intensify if they let the VIX pop. Any buying will be short lived, though we may get some decent rallies here and there, they will be unsustainable.

Dammit I said i wouldn't post for a bit but this was important. Roberts Rising Tide security changes update.

CHTR Replaces DD

DWDP Replaces DOW - Don't put this one in for 6 months to a year. let it build. the study wont work if you do.

If you have HSY, Replace it with KHC. KHC Is the proper component and is now updating.


THE MARKET:

The past 4 day rally does not constitute a tone change in the markets internal bear market. We still have half of all U.S. equities under their 200 MA and we still have the biggest selloff month to get thru, September. Give me 2 - 3 more weeks of this kind of rally then I can get excited. Until then its better to err on the side of caution.

The third most expensive equity market in U.S. history continues to get pricier as the banksters continue to keep this market artificially propped up. This is good and bad. Good for day/position trading, bad because of the ultimate outcome for everyone. Make no mistake its going to get ugly eventually. Until that time comes trading is still damn good for short term traders. All this chop and all these up/down gaps make for some incredible trading opportunities. Since the Nasdaq is the hot spot for momentum I'am predominantly trading in this area. TSLA and CMG in particular. 20 - 30 k can be made in 2 - 3 days with 1000 shares in these 2 overly hyped stocks. 20 - 30 k can also be lost in the same timeframe. Over the course of the last 2 weeks some technical damage was repaired. The major indicies hit new highs and many securities came out of bear markets and correction territory, but volume was absolutely pathetic during this timeframe, Thus anemic volume while the markets were hitting new highs equals no conviction?, bear trap?, and yes of course market rigging. Friday saw the indicies selling off only to see buying come in in the last hour. lame. There are still enough stocks in bear markets and corrections to warrant caution. In about 4 weeks earnings kick in, This could push the markets higher. Of the 8 or so sectors I follow only one is truly strong, aerospace/weapons. The other strong sector was HMO'S, and those finally began to get hit the last several days. Rotation is so fast in this market that your timeframe really cant be more than a few days, because after many stocks hit new highs they get hammered. Aerospace is still one of the rare exceptions in this hit and run market.

As Morris Day of the Time would say. What time is it!? Its swing trading time!, hold em don't fold em.

Market momentum may push the indices higher before some type of pull back, but weeks ago I documented potential measured moves on my charts as follows; the DJI @ 23400, Nasdaq @ 6441 and 2579 on the S&P. As of the close Friday, we are closing in on all of these numbers; just be aware.
I did close a very nice trade Thursday 10/19/17 on SAM that I entered 9/5/17. That said I am still in other long positions in the market with protective stops. I also did a practice trade on URI; with an entry on 8/29/17 and closed the trade before earnings on 10/17/17. There have been some very nice tradable moves since the end of August so I hope everybody has made some $$$$.
Always do what the market is doing NOW and always be prepared to change when the market decides it's time to change.

I think you were right Progress!, as earning season comes to a close the market appears to have lost its mojo, in the short term anyway. As the VIX is rising markets are getting clocked. One day up, next day down. no consistency right now. It once again feels like a casino. When you are hoping your stock goes up, its a casino. Traders should never be hoping for anything. This has once again become a gambling environment, thus a bad place to be. We haven't seen an earnings season like this one in a long time, such disparity on an epic scale. If it was preordained your stock moved up like IBM or MMM, both up 14 pts on gaps. If it was not to be you moved down like CMG down 49 pts as I write, or WHR down 19 pts yesterday. This many gaps and the size of these gaps is mind blowing. Can you imagine being on the wrong side of the these trades? With earnings winding down can the market continue higher with just well placed fake media news?, no, not if the VIX keeps climbing. looking at a 1 year chart of the VIX resistance is at about 15.59, It has been unable to break thru a descending wedge in 1 year and 4 months. Yet a market with this kind of divine intervention wont breathe its last breath until the grand masters say so. We may just be looking at another minor pullback or pause after a 1 month push into earnings. I must admit they fooled me this time though. I really thought this market had more legs to it by the strength of the push, or as Martin Zweig once called it, the breadth thrust. Indeed the masters are good at illusion. And just like that I'm out for the next several days to weeks until the VIX gives a clear direction, and or this market calms down and cuts back with the well placed gaps and wicked churning and chop.


S&P 100 STATS 10/25/2017

Bear Market -20% or more ( 11 stocks )

Correction -10% or more ( 15 stocks )

Near Correction ( 14 stocks ) < notable

It appears the Christmas rally may have already arrived. There is still some chop but nothing like we have had over the last 4 weeks. Though one more minor pullback is still a possibility before the holidays, the way the market is moving, the way securities are holding there ground its looking good. I'm in 3 swing trades, But still cautious. I was up 27k in October only to see most of it vanish due to down gaps. Make no mistake i'm getting my money back this month. I always do. Here's a look at some of the stocks I trade and watch.


PERCENTAGE OFF HIGHS: ( Rounded off )

BIDU - 11.5 %

PCLN - 15.0 %

CHTR - 21.0 %

WHR - 19.0 %

DIS - 12.0 %

TSLA - 19.0 %

KMB - 14.0 %

XOM - 12.0 %

AMGN - 11.0 %

CELG - 29.0 %

IBM - 16.0 %

CMG - 44.0 %

CMI - 10.0 %

MCK - 13.0 %

Several securities have already come out of corrections, the big question, Can this rally hold? I'm betting yes it will. In 4 weeks Christmas will be here. ( Seasonality ) In 8 weeks earnings arrive again. These are two big fuel factors for the market. Also in the next few days to weeks the symbols I posted above will be used to lift the markets even higher. Yes they will use the beaten down leaders in the new year after they have used them for tax write offs this year. Over this last 10 day rally they have not used GS yet to lift the markets. I believe they will. This will push the markets higher. Yes 1 stock can lift the markets higher. The right ones. GS is one of those.

Since November 21, 2017 there have been huge opportunities to make easy money; so I am sure Trader made back his money, with dividends, in spades. The VIX is still low but has drifted higher on average over the last 5-6 days while the market went straight up, which I see as professionals possibly adding a little extra hedge to their positions.

My current status: 4 positions total, all with discretionary stop limits, I bought CRZO on Sept. 25th which I am still holding, also bought CLR on Nov. 20th and still holding; also in two other positions in two different sectors that are doing well too. As for me personally I have to keep reminding myself I am not a trading genius because this market will make you feel like one when discipline is the only think that keeps me in the trade for a long trend and will get me out when the rules give the signal to do so. I will continue taking action based on what is happening in the market now, each and every day.

Never trying to be right, but always striving to trade the current evidence correctly.
Trade well folks!

Progress you are right. I did get my trades right, but didn't everyone? The market was so giving back then. What a difference a few weeks make! At the present time some of the most well known technicians and people I respect have called a market bottom set on 02/08/2018. Tushar Chande, Peter Reznicek, & Jhon Murphy to name a few. Iam not so sure. Its still to early to tell, but its looking more and more like the market is in for a hell of lot more pain. One should have learned at least one thing from this blog, and that was about market manipulation, I sure harped about it enough. And in this market for the last 6 weeks while the markets rose, most stocks went down. A rigging of a few key stocks to fool the masses. AMZN, GOOG, BKNG, BA, NFLX were some of the culprits. The major indicies close to all time highs, Nasdaq at highs, while the majority of stocks got beat down. Those key stocks pushed the major indicies higher. The public watches the major Indicies, not so much individual stocks. When mom and pop see their next 401k statement they may not like what they see. The underlying pillars of this market are cracking. The biggest leader of the last several months aerospace is now faltering, hmo's are dead, and techs are trying to claw their way back to highs. These 3 sectors were the main leadership of the last 12 months and more. What happens when they take out the generals?. At the beginning of this write BA was down about 16 pts, its now down about 5 pts. The leadership is deteriorating. Presently 43 stocks in the S&P 100 are in a 10%+ correction or 20%+ bear market, almost half. Yet indicies were close to highs. I'm thinking if this market does not push to new highs in the next few weeks into earnings season we may be heading into a bear market. Earnings have been the most stellar in a decade. If earnings cant take us into new highs then more pain lies ahead. The market needs to hold these gains right here. Should the market retest the 02/08 lows ( the pros said they would not ) then over half the S&P 100 may go into a bear market but the major indices may only see a 12% - 15% correction at best. The market has also once again gone into gapping mode, or should i say we are gonna screw you mode one way or another. The wicked volatility of this market is an attempt to shake out, fake out and capture as much money at the top as they possibly can. A great market for day to position trading only. The real test for this market is in about 3 weeks. The big guns announce in about 6 weeks. If this market is not rallying in at least 3 weeks to new highs it most probably will get uglier before it gets better. Over the next few days we will get bounces. These bounces should be monitored for sustainability. If the bounces can not hold then you know where we are going. Two last points I want to make is the overbought condition of so many securities on the weekly and monthly charts. After so many years of upside market moves equity prices are extremely pricey. The market would need to drop for about 2 - 3 months to get these long term charts out of their overbought levels, that would be a serious pullback yet always a possibility. Also the VIX remains at around the 17 level. Is she going to drop further or push back up? It looks like a tug of war between the markets and the VIX right now.