This market sucks

Past to weeks have been so crappy I havent traded. How about everyone else?

Lol, Guy you think the market has only sucked for the last two weeks?. You must be a trading GOD then. I think the market has sucked for the last 3 months and i have not traded as much as i would have liked. This market is truly set up to take your money as quick as possible. but then markets have always been set up that way. after all it is no different than a casino. I don't know what instruments you trade, but i myself trade equities only. I get up every morning and watch the markets. but i haven't traded much. I just get up to watch! cause i know right now its a dangerous place to be. so much chop. But over the course of the last month or so i have returned to day trading. i have always been a swing trader. But I have found that this crazy style of trading can yield good money in any market environment, especially this one. I truly believe the days of long trends for swing traders will be far and few from here on out, those days are gone. So i returned to this style to make more money, faster. waiting for swing set ups is a pain in the rear. day trading is fast and clean. in out. But with that said i believe we are about to embark on a multi week rally after the election and have positioned myself accordingly. So i'm backing off the day trading for a wee bit. Its great to know both. Like a great boxer, know when to hit and run and know when to coast. Its time to buy and sit tight into Christmas. Let the seasonal tendencies take you forward. Its about to get really good.


Rick R.

Thanks for responding. Yeah, I am getting so frustrated with it. I devote so much time and watch the market consistently but feel that lately nothing is there..... I miss Darcy. It times like this she would share what she was doing and her process. I never had a mentor but her sharing really helped me.

Just wanted to add my 2 cents here...I check in on this site from time to time. Hoping to see the conversation on trading return more than the programming aspect that has seemed to take over. The market has certainly taken to some chop with the unknowns about the election. I trade only larger charts. For me the trades have bee fairly normal but that is simply because I am very comfortable with making no trades in a month or two months or whatever the time frame may be. I am only saying that so any new trader on here understands the trap of feeling like its been so long since you entered a trade that you must find something to do. The importance of figuring out what a high probability set up looks like and sticking to that and only that cannot be overstated. I would be happy to share any of my trades current or past with anyone that is interested in talking about larger charts. There certainly have been some nice trades to be had over the last few months.

There has been some great insight on this forum and it would be fun to see that heat up again.

Fireman1984,

I almost sent you a message when I saw AMZN on the 233 a few days ago. About a perfect HRFP, but it was below the 50SMA and we were going into the election. Gary warned us about trading before big news events and I surely was not going to gamble on this one. I'm glad to see you post on here. What do you think?

Hey there. I saw AMZN on the 7th. I believe that is what you are talking about. Technically speaking it looked great. I just could not get behind the Weekly chart. It looked like it was headed lower to me. That coupled with the fact that 233 and D chart had a lot of possible resistance to get through I chose to go elsewhere.

I bought $RUT calls on 11/4. Then when the rest of the market followed suit on 11/7 I bought REGN Calls and BIB in the W&O leg. I was really concerned about what the election would do to my positions, however I decided to trade as if I didn't know the election was going on.

I hear lots of people talking about the Market, and how it prefers one candidate over another. I don't think the Market itself much cares who the winner is, it just doesn't like uncertainty. Once the winner is determined the Market goes back to doing what it was doing. She just doesn't like surprises.

Exactly. You can only see so many positions go your way after you closed them because you left on something the news did to your position. As a big chart trader the news and media is your enemy. Not one of them knows what tomorrow is going to bring! A la election!

Market picking winners and losers in a Trump world. As of 11:00 AM Calif time, Dow is up 276 Points. This Buying panic is still in play. Volume is 32 % above average with 2 hours to go. buying buying buying. New highs in all major indicies and then some coming. Stocks getting pricey already. GREED IS GOOD.


Rick R.

Profits taken. sold in the AM. It appears markets will pullback and backfill from here. I believe that's all this is. a pullback due to the parabolic rise we just had. for every action there is a counter reaction, and that was one hell of an action markets just exhibited. Due to seasonality that's all i believe this is, a pullback. I will reenter this market by Wednesday or Thursday. market should be done backfilling by then. any entries at this point may be higher risk, but if you can withstand a bit of downside pressure then do it, but i wouldn't take the chance. The street has a tendency to not kill markets on holidays like today. markets usually go flat to slight downside. but come Monday, that's a different story. Had i not made the money i made in these last couple days i would still be sitting tight, but i bought AMGN and MCK. 3K shares. no way in hell i was gonna give that back, as it was they took 9k profits from me in the AM. that was enough. let me also state that many stocks got really pricey in this past move, that means the moves in those securities will be more volatile, upside and downside. the more expensive a stock is the more volatility. but remember this. volatility is a traders best friend. without it you make nothing. with it you can make small fortunes, and build a good grubstake. One more point, should the market hold for the next couple days without a pullback that would be exhibiting strength, but i don't think that's gonna happen. markets are not that easy. markets like to take back what they have given you. so i expect some sort of pullback. Happy trading boys and girls.

Rick R.

Fireman1984,

I see what you did

You look for the weekly to be coming off of the BBB and the 50SMA as support for RUT. I'm getting better with the "big chart picture", that's why I didn't try to trade AMZN. I was thinking what you said about the weekly in a position to turn over...

Moving from a short charts/day trading mindset has been rough, but I'm really starting to dig swing trading.

Fireman does a great job trading 233/Daily in context of Weekly while being patient and waiting for his setup. Both of the examples given are good examples of reading the entire picture - trading $RUT and staying away from AMZN. Always a good idea to look for opportunities where the larger decision charts provide a signal in the direction of: 1)Weekly that is turning over in same direction, 2.)Weekly that has continuation and plenty of room to run in the direction of your trade or 3)Weekly that is at a great support or resistance level where you can reasonable expect a bounce or pull back. The last one is the hardest to trade because some folks want the trade to go to the moon and forget their original assessment of expecting a bounce. Great job Fireman!

For those that are aware of GW's new material, the only thing I have to offer is UNH. Entered 11/7 around 1:23 ignoring the upcoming election, stayed calm during initial post election "freak out" open, noted early evidence that markets were turning back my way quickly closed today just shy of 200% return. I assessed Weekly as neutral with high probability of retesting TBB. Exited today for a few reasons that cannot be discussed in the forum. Not a great trade but it will work.

NCT



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/11/2016 07:50PM by NCTrader.

just wanted to say thanks for some of the insight shared on here. i've felt a sort of paralysis lately because the unusual market conditions last few months and its good to be reminded about amplifying the signal and reducing the noise. i'm going to begin flipping over to the weekly to try keep the recent noises relative in context to the larger trends.

A 2 tier market. haven't seen this in a long long long time. Aerospace/Weapons, Transports, HMO's, Financials, up up up. Technology and Utilities getting killed. lovely.

Here is one for a few comments... I'm curious what the veteran GW chartists think of EQIX, even though the S&P futures are down 9.75 points as I write this at 9:17am. As I look at the charts, EQIX has a green candle on the weekly on the BBB. On the daily there are two green candles and the major indicators are turning up to cross, On the 233 there are four green candles and it is moving off of the BBB and there also was a cross of all the indicators indicating a HRFP or FP. I'm curious as to what everyone thinks as I am curious if this morning could be a pullback to get into some calls on this stock. I'm not going to, but it is good practice for me. Transitioning from a day trader to swinger is rough, but I'm ready to make this a lifestyle and not a hobby. Also, I have not taken Gary's new courses, I took Gary's 1-5 on CD/mailorder and the advanced class in VB.

To be honest, its not surprise that EQIX is down again this morning. I would not be surprised to see this stock consolidate here. The Weekly looks like it is set up for a couple of weeks sideways. Possibly White candle this week and then another red next week before I would consider picking it up. The 233 and D MA's are turning down. Although there is a little wiggle room here for up and down in terms of price. I could see it moving higher to the declining 21 MA and then moving lower again. I doubt that it will see a sustained move to the upside. Now realize that it certainly might rocket higher however I am just pointing out the things that I see which would keep me out of this trade. I would simply not be confident enough to put my money into it.

Fireman1984,

Thank you for the analysis. "The 233 and D MA's are turning down..." It's almost funny how something so simple was overlooked by me. It appears that you are right about this stock. Thanks again

I concur with Fireman. I put EQIX on an initial watch list for this week but decided to pass due to the reasons already mentioned: Weekly could go a bit lower but appears to be at a consolidation area, wide MACD still indicating continuation down, overhead resistance on Daily/233 with MAs turning down. I just wasn't comfortable and I am earning to listen to my gut. Starting to realize when I feel like this it is best to pass, regardless of the outcome. The best trades are ones where I try to talk myself out of it but the evidence is so compelling it simply jumps off the screen and screams "trade me". EQIX screams "don't fall into the trap - be patient". I kept EQIX on a medium term list to see if Weekly starts to consolidate as expected. I want to see a little more sideways on Weekly with MACD coming together creating some type of pullback on the Daily/233 that holds somewhere in the area of the last pivot point. What I am truly watching is the big picture: What is the Weekly, Daily, and 233 going to do over the next week or two? What will that picture look like? BBBs on Daily/233 flattening out, recent lows are held, Weekly going sideway, etc. If all this takes place over the next week or so, then I want an aggressive cross. What I saw yesterday on the 233 MACD was 'limp". I do not like weak crossings, expecially on MACD.

To summarize, everything I said above is a long way of saying this wasn't my trade. Not comfortable and didn't have the look and feel I want going forward. That's not to say it will definitely pullback. It could continue up but the risk/reward was not in my comfort zone so I passed.

NCT

Yup i agree. time to be a bit more patient here. The market just went up to damn fast. what goes up must come down. I went to the wishing well one more time though this morning to see if i could recreate the magic. no dice. I was up 1000 bucks in 1 1/2 hours and then my biotech petered out. I bailed with 700 bucks. that's it. believe me when i tell you i was waiting for a hell of a lot more than that. that's telling me there is more room to the downside from here, so risk is high. might be a couple weeks of back filling, though I still do not believe that market thrust was it. I think there is more to come, but we need to work off this excess first. Selling was 2:1 NYSE.

I appreciate the analysis from the GW chartists... Here is another one I'm checking out.

AMZN has the following:

1. Weekly- Green candle with the wick touching the BBB, histogram turning up but the indicators are not yet there.
2. Daily- Christmas cross going up, indicators starting to turn up with the DMI not crossing yet and the MA's leveling out.
3. 233- Christmas cross going up MA's still going down, indicators have crossed going up but they are ugly(not a HRFP).
4. 55- showing a HRFP going up.

I'm not asking anyone to give away any of Gary's new stuff, but this looks like a trap if you were going to swing trade some call options.

I'm not sure about anyone else, but I don't trust this market right now.

Happy trading everyone.

Dj,

I can't really go in depth on an AMZN analysis. However I will provide a couple of tips. These pertain more to the mindset side of things. You said two things in your post that really stood out to me. I believe that if you ever want to be successful in the market you have to get the main stream (public) mindset out of there.

1. "but this looks like a trap." First I would caution you from using ideas like this in the market because it is a mindset that always gives you an out should you be wrong. It is sort of saying that I think its a trap but everything else looks good so I am going to go for it. That being said, if it does not end up working out for you, it is very easy to blame the MM or anything else because they were obviously out to get you or set you up from the get go. I am only making this comment because I have been there. I used to think exactly like that and sometimes still do. I am not saying that there are not games played by prominent figures in the stock market. I am simply making the point that you can never leave any room to blame anyone else in the market other than yourself.

2. "but I don't trust this market right now." I have heard this a million times over the minuscule amount of years that I have been trading. People have not been trusting the stock market since its inception. The fact is that we are all programmed to initially be losers in an arena like the stock market, society makes sure of that. You can go on to a thousand web sites where people talk about the market and it is very very easy to pick out the ones that have not had a good go of it. They are always the ones yelling the market is rigged etc etc. Once again I am not trying to pick on you. This response is purely in good nature. I just want to point out that our mindset is so much more important than most of our analytical abilities and we tend to focus more on the latter. Furthermore, if any of us want to be successful here we have to rise above the victim mindset in the market and start acting like hunters. I will be the first one to laugh at some of the things that Gary says in his classes, however what is funny to me is the parent/child relationship that I see as my experience increases in the market. Gary has said a lot of things in past classes that at the time sounded ridiculous to me but as I participate more and more I simply see that I am the teen that wants to do it my way and he is the adult already experienced in this arena.

Sorry for not answering your question however I thought it might be a good place to interject about mindset.

Matt

fireman1984,

Very good advice. Sometimes we don't see the forest for the trees. I'm guilty as charged, but I'm opened minded and I'm changing the way I look at everything. Thank you, I appreciate the words of wisdom.

This forum needs a way to up vote other responses. to Fireman

As for AMZN, the stock has moved roughly $16 from any possible correct entry point. That is a small move for this stock but that $16 could be the be the difference between break even to positive gain vs. a loss. I am sure a micro trader could have made a buck of two on this move. As for the Daily in context of the old 1-5 mindset, the shorter charts are high and looking tired. In the old days I would wait for some type of pullback to consolidate small charts and relieve pressure on the short chart indicators. Then, assuming big charts still looked okay, start watching action chart. As for current day thought process, my potential entry has passed so I wouldn't be looking at it for calls.

One additional piece of info that you didn't mention regarding the charts. Pull up a monthly and take a quick 5 second peek. See if you still have the same conviction regarding those calls. We do not trade the monthly; however, the current condition of the monthly combined with overhead resistance and declining MAS on your decision charts will put pressure on the direction you want to trade. Something I would have to consider if I had attempted to trade AMZN at the correct entry point.

Happy Trading!

NCT

Time to play again. I reentered the market this morning in 2 trades, 2 Securities. 1K shares each. I entered the Utility and the Consumer Staples sectors. These are risk off sectors. My 20+ years of trading experience have taught me many things, one of them is for every mega rally there will be hell to pay for someone. those buying here are at a higher risk. the easy money has been made. I think this market is dead right here as it stands. that's why i entered my countertrend trades. I see the market hitting new highs but stocks moving down. that is the market is rotating stocks in and out . chopping upward creating new highs, but stocks are not creating new highs in great numbers, just key stocks. the same crap the street always goes to for manipulation. AMZN GOOG PCLN GS MMM. for the guys that have been trading since the dawn of man you can catch that fast. many so called experienced never catch it, because they don't open there minds enough to truly learn the important stuff, like when the market is money trapping. This market is overbought on so many daily and weekly charts. But we all know markets can remain in this overbought condition for weeks to months squeezing every retail and institutional sucker for every dollar they have, getting caught in the new high media circus. As every great trader of the past has done, Sell into highs, and lock in your profits. As i have stated before there are always good trades to be had in any market environment, right now i only see them in contertrends. Rather than stare at my screens for the next 5 weeks and do nothing i have positioned myself once again as i did before the Trump rally. This is where the big money is made. Before everyone figures out whats going on, and before equity prices begin to appreciate.

Happy trading boys and girls. And happy Thanksgiving!.