MAKE THE CALL!

MAKE THE CALL!
Nothing in this thread should be considered trading advice- do your own due diligence.
Time to put some stick about. Philosophy is nice. But it never made me a dime. As a friend of mine used to lean over and say in the middle of some motor-mouth philosophers trying to work a deal with him, “That's all fine and dandy- but does it make MONEY?” That's what we're here for. Does your “system” or “philosophy” actually make money? REAL TRADERS make the call. Right or wrong. REAL TRADERS tell us how they made the call and stand by it, right or wrong. So you're invited to step up with your “philosophy” and make some dadgummed calls. Put some skin in the game.

Show us what you got! If it's just hot air and philosophy, we'll know pretty dang quick. MAKE THE CALL. Tell us about tomorrow or the next few days or hours and be specific- no weasel words, no “if this, then that” or “could go this way, on the other hand, if...” etc etc. You will get hooted down for that. You will also get hooted down if have NOT made any calls lately but you criticize somebody else's call. I SUGGEST YOU DO NOT EDIT YOUR POST- THAT WILL LOOK SUSPICIOUS. MAKE A NEW POST IF YOU HAVE TO. TIMESTAMPS WILL BE USED AGAINST YOU. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO REMAIN SILENT- IF YOU'RE JUST A PHILOSOPHER THAT WILL SAVE YOUR REP.

Robertc777 already stepped up and made a couple calls- both good. I made some calls- all good (no brag- bad crap can show up by the bucketful). But I won't rest on my laurels- I'll be making more calls soon. Right or wrong.

Even if you're an amateur, use your stuff to make the call anyway. Trust me- putting yourself on Front Street is how you really learn. And don't worry about the bullies- just tell 'em to MAKE THEIR OWN CALL if they can. If you're wrong once, it's okay. But if you're wrong too often, you'll get one of these (which anybody can use- just right-click, Properties, copy link and post as Image):


Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

What.... pray tell are you going on about???

You're only allowed so many words a month in this forum, or else the server will crash. Don't go over your quota. Hehehe....

RichieRick Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What.... pray tell are you going on about???
>
> You're only allowed so many words a month in this
> forum, or else the server will crash. Don't go
> over your quota. Hehehe....
===========================================
Okay but now let's see who steps up to make the call

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

Best of luck to you baffled1 and anyone that decides to participate in this thread. I hope you get what you want out of thread. I am not condemning but have a different perspective. Successful trading is 10%-20% "How To" and "80%-90% "Mental". Like golf or any other endeavor, you have to resolve what lies between the ears before you will ever be successful. To do that you have to let go of ego. This type of thread is all about ego - not learning. The absolute most successful will not participate as they have nothing to prove to anyone in this forum. A better use of their time would be continual study of their approach and chart research to make incremental improvements to their system or spend time with their families, IMHO. Another caveat is that I have met people that have plenty of opinions of future market or stock direction. These same people took several of the same classes I have but have not made a single option trade in the past 5 years and maybe 2 to 3 stock trades over the past 12 to 18 months (their confession). Again, not intending to be critical but there are better uses of ones time.

Happy Trading!

-NCT

P.S. I hate to come across critical without contributing. The following thread has me quoted on 2/9 as saying a change in market direction would be coming around President's Day.

2/9 Quote


2/12 around 1:30 - Purchased $OEX CALLS $21.20 - underlying price around $830
2/17 near the open - Sold CALLS $33.30 - underlying around $850

My target at the time I sold was $868 - $870ish but had a meeting, could not monitor for a day or so, new it was close to full potential and sold. Given all that, I am not sure how this would have helped anyone if they are not able to execute without my opinion. JMHO.

Have A Great Trading Day!

-NCT

Here are my results from 02/22/2016

Entry Time Exit Time Stock Symbol Quanity Full Purchase Price Full Sales Price $ Profit/Loss % Profit/Loss
2/22/2016 11:10 2/22/2016 11:33 AMZN FebWk4 555 Call 4 $3,875.04 $4,344.86 $469.82 12.12%
2/22/2016 11:02 2/22/2016 11:39 TSLA FebWk4 175 Call 5 $2,915.06 $2,809.87 -$105.19 -3.61%
2/22/2016 10:51 2/22/2016 11:34 BIDU FebWk4 165 Call 4 $3,575.04 $3,844.87 $269.83 7.55%

Total Cost $10,365.14 Total Sales $12,034.60 Profit $634.46 Return %11.03%

Basically, made money on 2 of 3 trades, barely lost on TSLA (I got out way to early). Return for the day 11.03% or $634.46 including commissions/fees.

Not a bad day

flsupraguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here are my results from 02/22/2016
>
> Entry Time Exit Time Stock Symbol Quanity Full
> Purchase Price Full Sales Price $ Profit/Loss %
> Profit/Loss
> 2/22/2016 11:10 2/22/2016 11:33 AMZN FebWk4 555
> Call 4 $3,875.04 $4,344.86 $469.82 12.12%
> 2/22/2016 11:02 2/22/2016 11:39 TSLA FebWk4 175
> Call 5 $2,915.06 $2,809.87 -$105.19 -3.61%
> 2/22/2016 10:51 2/22/2016 11:34 BIDU FebWk4 165
> Call 4 $3,575.04 $3,844.87 $269.83 7.55%
>
> Total Cost $10,365.14 Total Sales
> $12,034.60 Profit $634.46 Return %11.03%
>
> Basically, made money on 2 of 3 trades, barely
> lost on TSLA (I got out way to early). Return for
> the day 11.03% or $634.46 including
> commissions/fees.
>
> Not a bad day
=====================================================
flsupraguy, glad for you and thanks for stepping up! You've expanded my idea of this thread to include “instant replays”, not just making the call in advance. So could you tell us how you made these decisions? A chart or two? People learn from that, just as much as they learn from good and bad forecasts.

If anybody's not comfortable making forecasts, “instant replay” is good too. My theory on preferring forecasts is this: it sharpens everybody's game. When your rep is on the line, you go the extra mile to get it right. And when you're wrong, then next time you go the extra 10 miles to get it right. So it's good for newbies and pros, but especially newbies.

NCTrader, I guess that means, for whatever reason, you can't make the call. Great, so don't participate. Philosophy never made me a dime anyway, not one. What makes money is learning to read charts. And “philosophers” don't teach that. And you're right- this thread is all about EGO, because EGO is what makes us all strive to get it right, newbies and pros alike. Stress and learning to handle it is what makes a good trader. Besides that, this thread is about hunting the Holy Grail, finding something the "crowd" doesn't use. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

Okay, let's rock! The Hunt for the Holy Grail is on!
I really encourage especially newbies to post their methods and forecasts!! FEAR is how you learn!! Here, it's FEAR of getting embarrassed.
So to make this easier for me when I post my first forecast, here's the Holy Grail I'll be using:

# TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. (c) 2008-2016
declare lower;
input length = 3;
input averageType = AverageType.WILDERS;
def ADX = DMI(length, averageType).ADX;
input price = close;
input L1 = 3;
input L2 = 26;
def myPPO = (ExpAverage(price,L1)-ExpAverage(price,L2))/ExpAverage(price,L2);
plot myALERT = myPPO>myPPO[1] AND myPPO[1]<myPPO[2] AND ADX<ADX[1] AND ADX[1]>ADX[2];
alert(myALERT,"PINCH IN PROGRESS",alert.BAR,sound.Ring);

A WORD OF WARNING: The above code is for a “Pincher Play”. On limited data, I've found it to be about 69% accurate; the other 31% is really dangerous.
On an Hourly chart:
1. For /ES I'll enter Long at the Open of the next bar after signal.
2. Stoploss of 4.1 points (on Entry bar).
3. Hold until any bar after my first bar drops 5 points from its open, a kind of trailing stop. In real life, if I got a huge spike up, I'd probably take profit, but we gotta have rules, right?
4. I may post for Daily or other periods with different parameters.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

I don't like Daily charts because of drawdowns. But if you're running the code above, you saw we just popped a signal. Market re-opens in a couple minutes at 5pm ET. Be careful. I haven't yet fully analyzed this for Daily. Offhand, I "think" a 10-pt stoploss and a 20-pt take-profit will work but needs more analysis. Good luck! Still waiting for an Hourly signal.
Here's simple eyeball code for analysis for now- just read the values on bar after the signal:

Declare lower;
plot mygain = high-open;
plot myloss = open-low;

EDIT~~ here's a better visual analysis code. Still working on better code to crunch numbers. And still not liking Daily charts for this algo, unless I come up with a risk/reward strategy that makes more sense. Anyway, on Daily it shows that a 10-pt stoploss works well. Only 31 Daily sigs in 2 years. Also still learning /ES market hours (still not open) but a chart's a chart.

#
# TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. (c) 2008-2016
#
declare lower;
input length = 3;
input averageType = AverageType.WILDERS;
def ADX = DMI(length, averageType).ADX;
input price = close;
input L1 = 3;
input L2 = 26;
def myPPO = (ExpAverage(price,L1)-ExpAverage(price,L2))/ExpAverage(price,L2);
def myALERT = myPPO>myPPO[1] AND myPPO[1]<myPPO[2] AND ADX<ADX[1] AND ADX[1]>ADX[2];
plot mygain = if myALERT then (high[-1]-open[-1]) else 0;
plot myloss = if myALERT then (open[-1]-low[-1]) else 0;
plot zeroline = 10;

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/24/2016 05:59PM by baffled1.

UMMMMMMM.......Sir I am not sure if you are trading real money....however anyone who has ever had "skin in the game," knows that EGO inside of this arena is certainly a recipe for disaster. This is not a personal attack.....however I do speak up simply because I beg any new trader here to not buy into whatever it is you are trying to stir up. If your looking for an adrenaline rush, fantastic!! As long as others (especially the newbies) are clear that this is in no way a means to sustainable success in the financial markets. The path to success is littered with the remains of those that could not bypass their ego/pride......Hence why Boom and Bust is the part of the life cycle many traders will go through but cannot remain in.

I assure you all that the Holy Grail exists only in the fact that you choose a system and stick with it.....a real professional is one that trades his and only his system....never leaving the confines of the rules that govern entry or exit.

I sincerely wish you all luck but I assure you that back at square one is a very familiar place for all that desire the "holy grail."

WOW.. not willing to make the call? Really?!? If you did some homework and perused the forum a bit before stirring things up you would see that I, and many others, have made numerous calls over the past 18 to 24 months. Right more than wrong. That said, I finally grew up and realized the only thing holding me back from taking it to the next level was ego. The biggest "Ah.. Ha.." moment I had was finally realizing that I didn't have anything to prove to anyone other than myself. As I said before, I was not trying to be critical nor am I a now. Only posting for the newbs in hopes they do not follow you down this path. The really exceptional trading pros got better by letting go of ego, not embracing it. They also didn't continue looking for new and exciting ways to mess with their process. The most successful are open to change but do not change every time the wind blows.

"I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times." - Bruce Lee

Quote
fireman1984
> UMMMMMMM.......Sir I am not sure if you are
> trading real money....however anyone who has ever
> had "skin in the game," knows that EGO inside of
> this arena is certainly a recipe for disaster...
> I assure you all that the Holy Grail exists only
> in the fact that you choose a system and stick
> with it.....a real professional is one that trades
> his and only his system....never leaving the
> confines of the rules that govern entry or exit...

Another "philosopher". No, I don't have skin in the game on the /ES, but a chart's a chart. I trade forex. Again (you might want to read the thread), EGO is the key to this thread, not to trading generally, though it has a place there too. So you found your holy grail. Good. That's what many others want and this is one way to get there. So instead of carping, why not make yourself useful and share what you know? Make the call and show us how you made it. Simple. Hunt the holy grail!

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

NCTrader and fireman1984 are very clear here ego is within the space between the ears and that can be the biggest obstacle to overcome. Trying to made a black box here is not going to happen!!! However a consistent diet of chart reading and knowing different time frames as one builds the next . You must know who the players are in the game.
The obvious the candlesticks, Ma, BB, R&S. You may not like Gary’s way of trading but Kudo’s to NCTrader for following the recipe to bake his cake. It does taste good when done as instructed. Learn that the market maker is not your friend and is in fact out to murder you (your account). I love the stop sweeper … look at your charts over and over he will take it up knowing where people have gotten in … and it may be just one candle with a large wick and bam there goes the weak hands or stops then he them loads up the spaceship with his money and he is off.
We have agreed Signed a Non-Disclosure and Non-Compete Agreement, so it you have attended Gary’s classes you well know what is in the box and that is just where it starts …. The Art Thing …. Is the hardest thing you will ever … ever …. Try to master!!!!
Yes it is fun to play around with indicators and code but I have had more than one in here tell me that doing the codes, had changed their focus and had them running from one bunny trail to the next, trying to find the Holy Grail.
I am not sure as the results you will here as I and NCTrader can be using the exact same methodology and be on different time frames and we could be talking to each other and one may spook the other to change their trade when in fact both could be right.
Good Luck
G0

DARCY, COME BACK !

"I don't like Daily charts"... what????

I think this fellas cheese has slipped off of his cracker!


Ya want an adrenaline rush? Take up Sky Diving or while driving down a dark road turn off your headlights and see how far you can get before you turn them back on again. But DON'T look for an adrenaline rush in trading! "Making the call" is just plain stupid. If it's not gonna put dough in your pocket why mess with it?

I'm sure you may not be aware of this, but most of the people on this forum are current or former Gary Williams students. There is NO "holy grail" in trading. No "black box" either, but you can continue to waste your time looking for it.

It seems to me that between the crazy and very weird indicators that you all keep coming up with and now this weird thread that this forum is beginning to start it's spiral down the old toilet bowl. Most of the successful old timers have completely stopped posting here now, with only just a few left. Maybe they are just counting their money and laughing at the crazy crap that seems to be popping up here each week now. Count me out.

RichieRick, bye.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

Just realized I don't have to "timely" post my trades on the PincherPlay code triggers, since the rules are posted. So anybody watching can see what happened. I'll follow up when I see it.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

i for one think most folks are taking baffle's tossing down of the trading-call gauntlet much too seriously. relax, take a deep breath, have fun, participate or not, skip the philo. probably i'll have nothing to add, since i'm concentrating on forex now and am currently suffering from a bad case of indicatoritis, but i might make a few calls, right or wrong, just to support the idea of the thread.

p.s. baffled, seems your pincher doesn't work on forex. that right?

linter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i for one think most folks are taking baffle's
> tossing down of the trading-call gauntlet much too
> seriously. relax, take a deep breath, have fun,
> participate or not, skip the philo. probably i'll
> have nothing to add, since i'm concentrating on
> forex now and am currently suffering from a bad
> case of indicatoritis, but i might make a few
> calls, right or wrong, just to support the idea of
> the thread.
>
> p.s. baffled, seems your pincher doesn't work on
> forex. that right?
=========================================
Hahah, Right, linter. Not for forex (at least not Hourly, due to ToS quotes issue). Glad you made that point!! And thanks for kind words.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/25/2016 09:55AM by baffled1.

While we await the first PincherPlay Hourly signal on /ES, I want to say this thread is not just to teach “newbies”, but for anyone who wants to make a change. I don't claim to be a super-expert on any trading- just judge by what you see.

To build a new system, by definition you have to hunt the holy grail. The way quants do this (Wall Street pays them big money to do it) is first to look for correlation between events, prices, indicators, etc. So here's an exercise. Pick any three random numbers 1-100. Go to the studies list on the EditStudies panel and count down to find the 3 studies corresponding to your 3 random numbers. To make it easier, make sure they're all “lower” studies; if not, just skip to the next study that is. Now load the 3 lower studies. STARE AT THEM. Look for correlation between their moves and price moves.

At first, you may not see anything. Come back later. Try again. Last night I tried this on /ES Daily and didn't see it 'til I tried again this morning. My random numbers were 11, 17, 29. They correspond to AccumDistBuyPR, Alpha2, and CCI. It would've been best if I could correlate all 3 with a price move, like if the first two went up and the last one went down that would mean price would move a certain way on the next bar. But I was only able to correlate AccumDistBuyPR and Alpha2 (though I'm sure CCI has a correlation with them somehow). When AccumDistBuyPR went up and Alpha2 went down at the same time, price seemed to drop on the next bar.

If you think you're on to something, next thing to do is run an Analysis study to see values. So I ran the code below. You can only see plots with Daily and higher, due to the values the canned algos are calling. This code may or may not be useful for trading- it's just to show one way to hunt your holy grail. But I can see that “maybe” with a certain stoploss and take-profit, I can be profitable on /ES Daily. What the code says is that “if AccumDistBuyPR goes up at the same time that Alpha2 goes down, the next day will be substantially down”. If you want to see it:

1. Copy and paste the AccumDistBuyPR and Alpha2 codes into one study.
2. Delete one of the “declare lower;” lines.
3. Change the two “plot” words in the above to “def” (not in the code below).
4. Paste the code below at the bottom. You can change the default input “mylookback” from the charting screen.

input mylookback = 50;
def mygain = if myALERT then (open[-1]-low[-1]) else 0;
def myloss = if myALERT then (high[-1]-open[-1]) else 0;
plot OVERALLgain = sum(mygain,mylookback);
plot OVERALLloss = sum(myloss,mylookback);

If you just want the raw signals, follow the directions above and instead paste this at the bottom:

def myALERT = AccDist>AccDist[1] AND ALPHA2<ALPHA2[1];
plot mygain = if myALERT then (open[-1]-low[-1]) else 0;
plot myloss = if myALERT then (high[-1]-open[-1]) else 0;

Good luck and keep hunting YOUR holy grail! Never give up! Never!!

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/25/2016 10:02AM by baffled1.

Boo-hoo! PincherPlay algo busted on first trade. Entry 2/25/16 at 12n ET, by rule Stoploss from entry was 4.1 pts. Full drop of that hour was 4.7 pts from open- dang it! IF IF IF ONLY I'd made the stop 5.0 pts we'd still be in the trade and sitting on 12 full pts by now. But that's what rules a for. Changing them too often is a bad idea. Live with it and better luck next time!

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

on the hourly, i think the signal fired as per the pic, but red means to sell, not buy, right?

linter, nice picture. The signal fires and then enter Long on next bar (if signal holds). I haven't yet figured out when this algo signals a short, so for now is only Long.
Oh- sorry- now I get your question. You mean the red in the algo plot. The algo has two plots. In your pic, red and light blue. Those plots are actually looking FORWARD to the next bar. The red calculates open-low and your light blue calculates high-open. Just a convenient way of evaluating performance if you'd entered Long as I said.


Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

so is that the trade you took? looks pretty goooooood to me.

btw / here's my new case of indicatoritis. it's killin me!

linter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> btw / here's my new case of indicatoritis. it's
> killin me!
=========================================
whew! Well, at least it's colorful

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

PincherPlay tripped another signal at 7pm ET 2/28/16. Entry Long at open 8pm ET. Stopped out.
So far, 2 sigs, 2 stops hit. Total loss = 8.2 pts. (I'm not accounting for spreads or fees).
One more of these and I'll give myself the poop-bag award. But I won't stop running this algo because I believe in the long term, it makes money.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

baffled1

You will find out with trading the ES mini, you will buy what you used to sell and sell what you used to buy and then you will make $. You have to have a sense of humor to trade futures LOL.

djpl8 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> baffled1
>
> You will find out with trading the ES mini, you
> will buy what you used to sell and sell what you
> used to buy and then you will make $. You have to
> have a sense of humor to trade futures LOL.
=========================================
djpl8, ahh- I just KNEW there was a secret to this.

Gamblers roll the dice; Traders load the dice.

Figured I would add some humor lol. We all need to laugh sometimes.