Losing Trade Today!

As I have stated in the past, I think it is good for everyone to hear about the losing trades as well as the winning trades. I do not mind airing my dirty laundry.

I lost a little more than $200 today on CF. I very, very rarely miss CF. This trade works 9 times out of 10. I I entered off my 13 on the 9:56 candle. Shortly after my entry, the stock turned on me and flattened out. My thought process is, If things do not go in my direction after 7 or 8 candles on that 13, I get out on a flatline. If I stay, I am wishing for a miracle and have no reason to think one will happen.

Some of the reasons I bought the position:
The previous day's low was broken
It was below my 8 MA
The DOW was going down strong
I was in my 10-12 window
The 55 showed a strong short term trend
Entry off my 13 looked good

A couple of reasons the trade did not work, but not enough for me for me to feel the trade should have gone bad on me:
Opening candle and next 3 candles on my 13 ran below bottom BBs. Gary's rule (Candles need oxygen to live- No oxygen outside B.
Possibly oversold based on indicators
Entry off the 13 hung me. Entry off the 8 would have not presented an entry point, so I would not have been in the trade.

Needless to say, I am disappointed in my decisions today. I really wanted to get in back, but I had to stick with my rule (after I sell, I close up for the day). I am a little puzzled regarding why CF did not go down much more after the open today.

I will be up extremely late tonight, breaking down this trade. I have to figure out what happened. My mentor says to no "beat myself up" about it. If I do not face the man in the mirror, I will make some of the same mistakes in the future.

Analyze the second candle on the 55. BBB bounce back to 8 MA.

My S/O traded CF today as well and hung on until after 3 sold and lost $80.00 on 20 contracts. His charts went sideways.

The thing about CF is it does have a tendancy to go down, go sideways (which often causes the option to rise good) and then go down. We are on the second gap down on the 55 chart. Scroll back and look at the 55 chart at the DOJI's on CF.

It is also not usual for CF to gap down on the 55 and go sideways before the next gap down. Keep in mind 3 gap downs usually there is a turn around.

CF is having to spend more money on development compared to POT. POT has been working on this since 2003 and is the learder in this area. CF got a very late start.

You may have had a lot of institutional buying as well. The "big guys" love to buy in when good stocks fall and they buy as it goes down.


I traded one of my little favorites today...WLT.

I traded calls on CRM today. I rode it up for about $2. I am happy with the trade.

I watched CRM break a little resistance at about 167 and RTT showed an uptrend on the week. It had not broken my previous day's high, but my 13 and 55 looked strong. The DOW was also going north. I had a HRFP on my 13 and candles were well above the 8 MA. Money Flow and Directional Movement were pointing up on my 13. The first candle close on the 55 pierced my 5,10, and 20 MA, so I was very comfortable entering. I lost about $200 yesterday and made about $300 today (+100).

Have a great day!
Rookie30

Great trade.

I have a new stock I have been watching for a while now, EQIX.

I watched it at the open and it was a powerful up. On Gary's 21 chart it broke the 200 ma @ 10:12 and on my 10 and 21 moving average chart it had the "E".

I entered my CALL trade with a little "fear" because my 55 chart looked like it might hit the 50 ma and go down but I thought if it could go through the 200 on the 55 it very well could go through the 50. I liked how it was above my 10 ma on the 55 and I felt like I had a fairly good set up. I also thought it could go up to at least the very small gap on 4/12 to 4/15.

I entered my trade with 5 May 220 CALLS @ 5.80. I bought May because I just didn't like how the market was acting after such a big drop yesterday and a hot run up today. I dunno just didn't look right to me. I was just more comfortable trading in May this time around. Usually I trade the month I am in during expiration week up until Wednesday.

My entry was not pegged and to honest I was concerned when I started going sideways. What interested me though was even though my stock went sideways my option wasn't losing enough to get me out of the trade. I really HATE sideways moves after I enter a trade.

When I saw it start to go sideways again I left the trade I sold out of my trade @ 1:28PM. I had quite a ride on the 10 ma on my 10 moving average chart. And was was more than happy to get out. I sold 5 CALLS for 7.40.

I don't know why but this trade had me a little more nervous than what I usually feel. I really think it was the market making me jittery. Today just seemed off to me...I dunno maybe because it is spring FINALLY!!!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2013 08:41AM by Darcy.

I traded EQIX yesterday to the down. I entered first thing in the morning off of the 233. I bought 1 May 210 put so it was 1 out of the money. It was 6.10. It didn't move near as much as the stock did. The stock dropped a little over 6 after I got in and the option only moved 2. I got out first thing this morning and made just enough to cover my commissions! I was a little taken back by the big buy back today as well. I have watched EQIX for a while now and it always moves big. The options are to expensive for me to buy a lot though since I have a cap of 800. I also took a small loss in WYNN. Bummer but on a lighter note I exited EOG with a 200% profit which I am pretty happy with. I really wish I had more discipline to follow Gary's rules exactly because I tend to exit my winning trades to quickly (EOG) . So my new goal is to follow Gary's rules EXACTLY as he taught them especially his exit rules. because most of the time he is right on.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/16/2013 08:47PM by Stacees.

Did a practice trade on CF today. Missed some trades on it earlier on and watching it today say that the weekly, Daily, 233 was still showing support for some downward movement. On 55 this morning and 13 ma chart looked to go down. I entered around 9:50 around 174.75. Will see how it goes?

Closed CF around 11:00 and option price I entered on May 170 put for 4.55 (I know it was way out of the money but like I said I was practicing it) at 11:00 it was 6.00. Exited based on 13 ma candlestick reversal and indicators turning back up.

Made the same trade except I made it on the 55

TCB,

That was a great trade. I see you are getting a bit more comfortable with the 13! I think you will find that the 13 is a great "poor man's" chart. For the most part, you will not get long runs, but you should make money from the chart. My thought process is, if I buy enough contracts, I am still rolling right along.

I had tunnel vision this morning and should have been with you guys in on CF. I traded NFLX and allowed myself to get flushed out on the 10:22 candle off 13. I had no reason to leave, but NFLX did a little "herky jerk" and I ran for the hills-lol! If I would have stayed, I would have done well. I guess this is one of those days I did not trust the evidence. My indicators were screaming for me to stay. Did not lose anything, and gained pennies. I will take it. I hate my rule of closing up shop after I close a trade, but I will stand strong on that rule. I have lost over a thousand dollars in one day by chasing a stock.

BCT- Thanks for the encouragement. I am tipping around as the summer zone slips in.

I went back and tried to figure out what happened over the last couple of days with my trading. Thanks Big Charts for suggestions regarding looking at that 55 as a key indicator when making decisions. Those candles on the 55 speak very clearly. Just gotta listen and know what you are looking for. That second candle on the 55 on CF (April 15) was clearly a candle that could and most likely would cause some reversing. It closed outside the BBB. Thanks again for pointing that out. Everything else was in perfect alignment for a good trade.

Do not ever get too comfortable with this stuff. For intraday traders, it is imperative that our indicators line up and we take the little things in account. Think about it, I had 6 indicators (mentioned above) that lined up perfectly. Based on that one big miss on the 2nd 55 candle, I lost money. No time or opportunities to withdraw that trade or issue after I have entered. The position was a losing one from the entry. I found myself in that trade, praying for a miracle to take place because the trade has gone in a direction that was not anticipated.

I traded PUTS on FB this morning. I went deep in the money. A rule of thumb FOR ME is..... If a 13 candle peirces through my 5, 8,10, 20, and 50 MA, it is a 95% chance it is going to be a trade. If the market is running in the same direction, and I get a candle long enough to extend from the middle and through the bottom BB, it is almost 100% that I will get a crumb going in the same direction. Most likely I get a brick. This morning I got a brick as FB ran down really strong after breaking yesterday's low. Great day for me. I like two good trades a week. Today was my first good trade for the week.

After loses, go back and break your trade down. I do not trade again until I can figure out what happened in my losing trades. If you do not know, put it out there on the forum. We will try to help. God knows, you guys vave help me. Would be below average without your help. Remember, all of us are in this together. Just do not stop working and as always, develop your own style of trading based Gary's program being the source of your foundation.