Question on Survivor classes or short chart trading?

So I have a question for you all.

First let me tell you that I am a GW student. I took 1-5 back about 10-11 years ago. Since then I have traded on again, off again but I have never stopped trying to learn this. I have the CD set of 1-5 with all the extra’s (Denny’s sessions etc). I have listened to those CD’s over and over again trying to make this thing work, as well as reading the books. I have been watching this forum for well over a year now and have probably read every post on here so I know this question has been asked, but in different ways.

I am contemplating taking Gary’s new Survivor 1 class this coming January BUT I have some doubts I’m trying to work through.

My question is if this class is really worth going to (class costs, travel costs, hotel costs, meal costs…)? I ask this for several reasons and none of these are meant to be a put down to Gary or any of you guys. As I read through these posts here and talk to others, it does not sound like many of you have made this thing work, at least not the way Gary teaches it now (Big Charts). I see people like Darcy (before she stopped posting) who have made it, but she and S/O developed their own system and only do small charts (day trading). Others like Rookie30 have done the same with small, intraday trades, and from his posts seems to struggle doing the big charts which is all Gary teaches now from what everyone on here has said. I do see someone like BigChartTrader who alludes to his success using only big charts but for the most part it’s short chart traders on here making the $$.

I read about people who have taken the original 1-5 and RTP, Espresso etc back around the same time as me, they have even taken the new survivor classes a while back but still have not made it work. Now please do not misunderstand me, I’m sure some of you have some success with this but when I read that you couldn’t trade today or this week because of your job then I have to think that after all of these years you have not become successful doing this YET. Someone like Darcy has posted in the past what she was making on a monthly or yearly basis and that’s success to me. I also understand that they have another business but with the amount they make trading they never seem to let the other business get in the way of their trading.

So I guess my question to you all is; is it worth taking Gary’s new class 1 when it looks like the majority of people have more success with the short charts which Gary does not teach anymore. Should I be studying something else to try and learn short charts better?

Again, this is not a putdown of Gary or his system, I learned a lot from what I did take. It is also not a condemnation of others here. I am not looking for fights, just an honest question looking for honest answers from a group of people who for the most part seem to want to help others succeed.

I think that this is an obvious and valid question that we all have addressed at some point as we began this journey. I believe that at the beginning of this journey we all find it very easy to believe the nay Sayers because not trading well is the category we all fall into. It is much easier to believe that this is not possible because success is truly many years and many lost dollars away. I also believe wholeheartedly that our wanted it yesterday American culture makes it even more difficult to succeed in an arena such as the stock market. Gary recommends a book called Mastery. I suggest that you read it if you have not. It is an in depth study of individuals present and past that are masters in fields such as the arts, engineering, business etc.. The overarching theme of the book is that all of these individuals had a few things in common: 1. Years and years of practice before they became masters of their field (approx. 10 years on average) 2. Tenacity, they never ever quit. They all had people in their lives that told them they could not and would not be successful. (Sounds familiar to some of the posts that you read on this forum GWNO for example).

Great place to reference the story: The Master of Jade.

Furthermore, I have stated it in the past, probably one of the most important things that you can do in your trading career, especially early on is make this a by yourself thing!!! The more you look for answers or confirmation that this works, the more the doubt creeps in. This is not a group think. The more minds here does not equal more success or quicker results. That is an engineering thought process and clearly engineering the heck out of this will make you flat broke!
So do I think you should take Gary's class? Yes and No. If you are looking for someone to hold your hand and tell you that it is all going to work out, then your answer is don't waste your time or your money. If you are going to put your head down and do the work, regardless of what everyone else around you is saying, then the answer is yes you should absolutely get your butt in the Jan. class.

Lastly, a word on Gary's system. Everyone gets on here and cries foul when it is not working for them. The fact is that people hear only what they want to hear. In every class that I have taken of Gary's he makes one thing clear. HIS SYSTEM IS NOT MAGIC. Gary makes it very clear that this is not going to be easy. He tells everyone that success is years and years and years away. Every person that I have every heard of retiring has been working at this for 5-7 years.
This is simply a rules based system with an artistic side baked in. Its not THE system, its just A system. I would say that whatever you chose to do, pick a system and follow it strictly. Give it enough time to work before you throw it away and move on to the next.

Here is something that somebody posted on this forum a ways back: Its called the 5 steps to becoming a trader. Inside of the content it gives a very enlightening set of trading statistics. 60% of new traders quit in the first 3 months. Another 20% keep going for a year and thin in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does. What may surprise you is that the remaining 20% will last around 3 years and they will think they are safe in the water but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently. I have had many people argue with me about these time scales- funny thing is none of them have been trading for more than 3 years. Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up 3 or 4 times but now it is in your blood. One day, in a split second moment you enter the next stage of trading....(you can search the forum for the actual article).

Sorry for the long winded response. I hope you chose the grind!

Oh and one more thing....the reason you don't find a lot of retired people or people that have found retirement here is simple. People that are retired or have reached a mastery level have absolutely no reason to spend time on this forum or any other forum at that. They have found success and they need no reassurance that what they are doing is correct. I myself have not found that yet, however I have been doing Gary's survivor and RTP system strictly for 2 full years now and I have certainly seen trading improvement and the glimmer of future success. I chose to give this all I had until it worked and I hope you do the same.

Matt.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/19/2015 12:40PM by fireman1984.

Very simple answer. The survivor class, and probably the pursuit of short chart trading, is absolutely not worth it - for you! Why not put your money in a mutual fund and spend the time you would dedicated to trading with your family?!? Not trying to be harsh but your post is filled with doubt before you even begin. Do you think Steve Jobs sat around wondering if they should really release the original iPhone? Did Bill Gates and Paul Allen question whether or not they should write the first operating system? Bill and Paul actually contacted founder of the Altair (forefather of personal PC), told him they were building an interpreter / operating system, and requested a meeting. They wrote the code on the flight to their meeting. They had nothing to show when making they made the call other than commitment. My point is that you need to commit. Whether that be short chart trading, taking Gary's class, or doing something else. And then don't quit! Will Smith said the one thing that sets himself apart from any other man is his work ethic. If you put Will and someone on the treadmill the other person will get off first or Will would die trying.

If you decide to take the Survivor classes please know that the first class is only intended to get you on the right track. IMHO this is what GW should have taught 10 years ago. At times it feels like everything else he taught was a big mistake. As you progress in the new classes he layers more and more on where the other stuff he used to teach makes sense. But the first step is just to build a foundation. My only other advice, if you decide to take the class, is get off this forum and forget it exists. You will be too tempted to follow the heard or add something new. Just do as instructed. Figure out your approach and stick with it. Focus on getting better on your approach and not what others are doing or trying to add some new indicator.

I can't go into very many details due to NDA but there is one more thing you can do to help yourself. I used to follow another popular trader that had a blog setup to help new traders. The blog was called the Kirk Report. When he started learning technical analysis and following the market he decided to do one exercise every night. He would print off a couple of charts for several symbols, write down what he thought would happen (predict), put those predictions in a folder, and then pull them out at some predetermined time depending on the length of his prediction. Basically set up a tickler file. Then every night he would pull out something he had predicted a week or two ago and analyze the results, tearing apart what worked and what didn't. He kept doing that until he got better. Don't bother looking him up as his blog has since gone private - not accepting any subscribers. My point is that the above should sound familiar to some folks that read this (hint, hint, wink, wink...). If you use a charting platform like Alchem it makes the practice that much easier.

NCT



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/19/2015 05:39PM by NCTrader.

NCT,

Can you give some more information on the Kirk Report. What type of trading does he teach? What does he charge. His website looks like he does mentoring.

Thanks,
BC

The Kirk Report will become a closed community effective 2016. In other words, if not a current member, you will be unable to get in.

I am really surprised that there are already 120 views of this post and only two people actually responded to the question. I thought that there would be more people giving their view on this.

But I do want to thank Fireman for his response to this. I do agree with you that the reason you don’t hear from the successful ones on this forum or any other is because they are successful and living their lives. I would like to think that when people make it, that they try to step up and encourage others to do the same, and some do.

NCT, I hear what you are saying in your own way. I personally don’t believe that asking questions is always doubt. To reference your own analogy of whether or not Steve Jobs sat around wondering if they should release the original iPhone, that means he had to have asked the question are we doing cell phones the best way or is there another or better way. Did he doubt that cell phones were the way to go? No, but he did question is there another, better way. Same with Will Smith, why not do it the same way every other entertainer did it? Did he doubt that it could be done? No, he just asked is there something I can do differently to increase my success. Anyway, I know that the intent of your post was not to discourage but to encourage in your own way and I appreciate that. I myself have been very successful in other areas of my life because I did take the time to question the way things were being done and improved on them.

Anyway, I just want to wish everyone here a very merry, peaceful Christmas and a happy healthy New Year. Also, happy belated Chanukah to all of our Jewish friends here, and happy holidays to all the others who don’t celebrate one of the above religious holydays.

I would still love to hear from others on this subject, or even private message me if you don’t feel like spilling your guts to everyone.

Good trading going into the New Year.

There is a difference between, "knowing the path and walking the path". Knowing it is what GW's classes are for. Walking it, is all on you. It's a "by yourself thing".

There are many lurkers on this forum that have become successful at this, but they dare not speak up for fear of opening up a flood gate. You have the knowledge, now just start walking. Taking the SW class can be of benifit to you, but only if you let.


Mr. Experience is the toughest and best of teachers. He gives you the exam first.... then the lesson.

What I find interesting is that none of the responders to the OP's inquiry say they are making money and/or having success with what GW teaches. Doesn't mean they aren't, but wasn't that part of the OP's question and yet it has not been answered.

I don't think it is as easy as that. I also don't think the question will ever be fully answered. At least not to most people's satisfaction anyways.

Most people (including me) wouldn't say if they were super successful for fear that the next line of questioning is gonna be, "prove it". Or the 5,000 emails or PMs asking me to "explain" how I'm getting it to work when they can not. I'm certain no one is interested in doing that. I'm having much success with what GW teaches, but when a trade fails I don't blame the system or Gary. Like has been said by GW a million times, "even when everything lines up perfectly, they all aren't going to work." Gary's "system" is NOT a black box, and it never will be. At the end of it all, you all by yourself have to know how to read the charts for yourself. Simple as that really.

3 people will look at the exact same chart and see 3 different stories. Why is that? Only one of them is gonna be close to being right, the other two will come up short. Why is that??? They looked at the same chart didn't they. The difference is "in them". You have to learn to get out of your own way. No amount of classes is gonna do that for you.

My statements don't really answer the OP's guestions either, but I'm not certain it can be.

To Mister B--and anyone else who cares enough to read this:

I'm one of those elusive creatures from whom several individuals on this forum occasionally demand posts proclaiming how wildly successful we are. We're what Gary calls "really veteran" (i.e. old) students who, after a decade or more of learning, practicing, and trading are making money, and/or retired, and/or "successful." That more of us don't post, or don't post more frequently is cited as proof we don't exist, or don't "want to help others succeed," or evidence of some weird conspiracy, or some other pile of rubbish. If you want to know why I don't post more often, or reply to PMs, re-read Fireman1984's and RichieRick's responses above. 'Nuff said there.

You've received plenty of good, fair answers to your questions. Those same questions get asked here a lot. Each time, a few, compassionate souls take a lot of time to craft careful, honest replies to the queries. And, almost without fail, the queries invoke an argument: "Yes, but..."; "Well, if that was really true..."; or "I am really surprised that there are already 120 views of this post and only two people actually responded to the question. I thought that there would be more people giving their view on this." In other words, the individuals asking the questions have already formed an opinion as to what the answers should be, or how many times they should be given those answers. And when they don't hear the preferred answers, or receive them in insufficient quantity, they ask the same questions again and again in a slightly different way, driving hard at receiving the message they want to hear.The real problem lies within the questions themselves: they are self-referential, and puny.

Here's an excellent question to ask in this regard, quoted from one of the best trading books of all time--Robert M. Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance:

And what is good, Phaedrus,
And what is not good--
Need we ask anyone to tell us these things?

How do you define "success"? The way I define it, I've been hugely successful since the day I got off my lazy butt and took GW Class #1 13 years ago. That day--and the uncountable hours since then that I've dedicated to mastering my emotions when confronting the gain or loss of my own money--changed my journey through this life beyond measure. Have I lost a lot of money since then? You bet! Have I made a lot of money since then? Absolutely! So what?! If you define your "success" by how much money you've made or lost, I'm guessing you've led a mighty shallow existence until now. (Thomas Jefferson, an American of some renown, was, in today's dollars, roughly $2 million in debt when he died. Do you believe he lead an "unsuccessful" life?)

Taking classes, regardless of the subject matter, is a lot like eating out at a fancy restaurant: If you have to ask the price, you probably can't afford it. In this particular case, if you have to ask the question, you probably either don't need the extra training, or your heart's not really into trading anymore. Either way, there is no "good" or "bad" answer; no implied "success" or "failure." Find something else that makes you happier.

Lastly, as to the apparently endless, and infinitely small, debate as to whether big charts or small charts are "better," do a search on the term "scalar invariance" sometime. Scalar invariance is an underlying quality of all stock price charts, regardless of time frame. (Remove all references to stock symbol, date, and time from a random set of weekly, daily, 233, 55, and 21 min. charts printed from a random set of stocks. Throw them all on the floor and mix them up. Then pull them out one at a time and correctly identify the time frame. When you fail miserably, you will have succeeded in learning an invaluable lesson.) Sometimes small charts work well; sometimes big charts work well. Is a screwdriver a "better" tool than a hammer? Use the tool you need to get the job done.

Peace and tranquility,

A huge AMEN, hologram! Also, to fireman1984, RichieRick & NCT... spot on, gentlemen!!

A Happy New Year's to all!

I have been at this for 11 years and have not succeeded. Took all the classes (completed Survivor 2), worked extremely hard and given that my results are flat (win some, lose some). That being said, I know it's my emotion and lack of patience rather than the system (though the system has changed and evolved). At this point I am not taking any classes and don't plan to but continue to work on it and my emotions!

Just a comment regarding the merits of the program and small charts vs. large since that was part of the original question. Either process can work quite well if you stick with it. Just don't jump around. Make a decision, stick to it, and don't quit. As for the big chart process that is actually taught, all you have to do is go look at the big charts for pretty much any stock since Jan 1. I was in contact with a few big chart traders back in early September (a few I know that are doing as instructed). At that time we all noted the biggest charts (Q & M) indicated a good pullback coming. We also noted W's being low on their scale with indicators low signaling a possible bounce. Some of the chatter back and forth was whether or not we could see a decent FWTZ bounce on the weekly creating maybe one white candle on the Q and one or two white candles on the M. In other words we would have a shortened FWTZ as you would see in a bear type market. The Q and M would be a one or two candle counter trend bounce and then turnover and continue down around the first of 2016. About that time GW sent out an RTP newsletter pretty much confirming those were his thoughts (not agreeing with us per se as we do not know GW personally but GW's thoughts were in agreement with what we were thinking). Now go back and look at the major indices since September: Q,M, & W. Pretty much played out as expected. I am not saying you will ever be 100% right but you do get better over time seeing these types of things coming once you can put all the pieces together (class work, market study, running charts back, and the calendar). You discover that the process will occasionally put you in the right position just before a big move such as the one we are seeing.

As for large vs small, you have to figure out what works for you and stick with it. Most of the short chart trades presented in this forum are pretty much scalping for $0.50 to a buck or two. That's perfectly fine if it works for you. As I mentioned before my former mentor was a short chart scalper targeting $0.50 to $1.00 profit per contract on 30 contracts when he retired. Then in 2008 he still targeted $0.50 to $1.00 never changing his process but started realizing $5 to $10 or more per trade as he was trading short charts in the direction of the big chart trend. He got paid well during that time but never let it go to his head. To this day he still targets $0.50 to $1.00 on short charts.

If you want to be a big chart trader you must learn to be patient and understand you might be forced to go a few weeks without a trade while still doing your daily work and not get discouraged. Then you realize a good move as the one we are seeing Most of the great movers out there have moved in the $25 / $30 range on the low end up to $100+ since the end of December. You can rationalize China or whatever the justification for the move but the good ones out there simply do not care why nor do they try to explain. They simply do as instructed.

Wish you all the best and a most profitable 2016!

NCT

Just another opinion. MisterB I have been doing this every day for about the same time frame you mentioned since you took the original classes and unfortunately my first goal of mastering my emotions has not been obtained yet. I say this because when I print and review my trades I have done, some are done 100% correctly that result in a profit, or minor loss, while at other times I seem to get lulled into a lack of discipline which is almost always the result of allowing my emotions to cloud my judgment. This is a fact of my trading results regardless of the charts I choose to use; Gary's system and most other technical systems are fractal so the size charts you decide to trade are more of a decision of when, and how much time you want to spend in front of the screen. I have taken all 3 survival classes and personally would recommend them if you want to improve your education. The ability to trade well unfortunately does not have as much to do with the system as it does with the operator. But this is true in just about every aspect of life; we must work at what we want to do well, trading is just one of those more elusive crafts that takes absolute discipline and several years for most to become accomplished. So find what fits your personality and schedule; then focus on doing it well. Remember loses are a part of the business of trading but when you review your trades you what to be able to say you would do that trade again because it was done correctly. Over time I believe the money will take care of itself.

Personally I had to get over the mentality of making 5-10 trades a month and understand that this is a goal to be achieved when I have the proper skills to do so. My current status or goal is having the patience to wait for a single trade that is technically set up absolutely correct and I can confirm other reasons why I should take the trade; then move forward one trade at a time without any specified monthly goal. I do practice other trades but my main focus is on correctly executing one real money trade at a time. Then I will be raising the bar or changing my goals so that I am always working on improving my ability to trade well.

Wishing you well.

Last comment for awhile as I plan on spending my time in 2016 studying the charts and doing considerably more of the grunt work to improve my trade analysis. WIP is spot on!! I walked out of the original classes years ago thinking I was to immediately go out and find 5 to 10 trades per month. Several times during the learning process I had 2, 3 or even 4 good trades early in the month and then pushed another 2 or 3 to hit a "perceived" quota. I am sure anyone that has been dong this for any length of time can visualize the end results. The goal is to do as many as you can correctly see, doing as instructed with all pieces in place, during the month. As a new person that might be 1 or 2. If that's all someone sees and they do the best they can at the 1 or 2 then that is perfect month. Eventually you will see more as you do the work. Anyone getting ready to retire should be consistently hitting the 5 to 10 (on average) along with the w/o qualification. I say "average" because the market will not give you what you want. There are times when you get the 5 to 10 opportunities and other times you might go a few weeks without any good opportunities. then BAM! You take what it gives you. On a side note 6 is not better than 5 and 7 is not better than 6. Target 5 as a minimum up to possibly 10. Anyone using the new Survivor series (through class III) knows that once you are doing everything possible 4 to 6 should be relatively easy when trading with the market.

Same with W/O. The whole thought process of averaging x% per month is a bit misleading for new folks or those sill working to get better. Yes, I am sure GW probably gets his W/O trades in each month but for new folks the reality is that you might go a month and not see a good W/O setup (one you can see), next month you get maybe a mushy 1% to 2%, and the third month BAM - Y% that when averaged out over the three month timeframe equals an average of the X%. That realization also helped to take a lot of pressure off. Both of these, not having to make 5 to 10 if I didn't see good setups and the thought process of "averaging X%" per month instead of having to make X% each and every month helped me relax quite a bit. I stopped forcing trades and started waiting for those that jump off the screen at me.

Wish you all a very profitable 2016!

NCT