Big Chart Trades

No big chart trades on here in a long time......I thought that I would add a few of my last trades to help anyone out that is focusing in this area.

6/24/15 INSY 233 entry Exit 6/29 at the end of the day. bought Nov. 40 Put Sold July 40 Call

6/24/15 GS 233 entry Exit 7/8 at the end of the day. bought Aug 215 Put Sold July 215 Call

7/10/15 VRX 233 entry Exit 7/20 at 1st candle close earnings was right around the corner, time to go. bought Aug 230 Call Sold Aug 235 Put

7/10/15 AGN 233 entry Exit 7/16 at 1st candle close bought Aug 315 Call Sold Aug 315 Put

7/30/15 WYNN 233 entry Exit 8/3/15 1st candle bought Sept 105 Call Sold Aug 105 Put

9/1/15 NFLX 233 entry Exit 9/8 at the end of the day bought Oct 110 Put Sold Oct 110 Call

9/16/15 FDX 233 entry Exit 9/24 1st 233 candle close bought Jan 150 Put Sold Oct 150 Call

9/18/15 EQIX 233 entry Exit 9/29 at the end of the day bought Dec 280 Put Sold Oct 280 Call

10/2/15 WYNN 233 entry Exit 10/9 1st 233 candle close bought Dec 60 Call Sold Nov 60 Put

An interesting discovery.

When I first played back your trades in TOS's OnDemand feature I thought many of your dates were off by a few days or so, BUT then I discovered that I was looking at the charts from 2012 and not 2015. What I did find though, sort of caught me off guard. Most of the trades you did were almost perfectly a repeat from 2012 possible trades. Give or take a few days. In many instances there prices were even in the same ranges.
Take a took at the 2015 trades and then compare them to 2012. Same symbols and dates. In a few instances it seems to be an almost exact repeat to time and price even.

I guess that makes Gary right again doesn't it? GW said the markets do the same old boring stuff all the time, it's just the participants that are different.

Great minds think alike. I haven't had a chance to do a lot of trading the past 6 weeks but will provide a few of the ones I could get. One caveat to anyone that reads: do as instructed within your education level and experience / not as I do. You will see one tip of week entry I would have bet my life on but should not have been paying attention to the shorter charts. You will also see a couple where there was clearly room to continue but I was shaken out by watching smaller charts. I still have a ways to go on reading "all charts all the time". The lesson is that someone better equipped to read the charts could have stayed in until completion (as instructed). This is not hope or hindsight. I knew the bigger charts were still going my way. I had every reason to stay in but like many have been burned too many times in the past. If I start to feel a bit uncomfortable knowing I will have to sit through a retracement and the stock has already moved $10 to $15 in my favor I am bad about getting out. That is my biggest growth area beyond reading the charts and something I work on constantly. A few I did stay in until completion. I am working on it :-)



NCT

NCTrader.... I have a fix for your short chart dilemma.

NEVER, NEVER EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER look at a chart smaller than your entry decision chart WHILE IN THE TRADE!!!!! How's that If for example, you entered on a 233 chart decision never drop down and look at the 55 min chart while in THAT trade. I can only see 3 charts on my workspace. The weekly the daily and the 233. That's all I look at. I only look at smaller charts for my predictive work stuff, never for trades.

I'm still on the journey as well. I have not arrived anywhere

Here is my disclaimer: As my dad used to say, "Don't follow me, I'm lost". Hehehe.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/13/2015 04:48PM by RichieRick.

Yes! I agree and I've set up my workspace so I see the W-D-***-233 only. Then I need to scroll down to see anything smaller. I agree with RichieRick on never looking at any smaller charts than your decision chart while you are in a trade.

Trade well.

I agree. I thought I had learned that lesson but it is something I do struggle with from time to time. The thought process of "giving permission", for anyone that is familiar with the phrase, has helped a lot. The other area I need to let go is setting targets. The predictive work has helped quite a bit with seeing it coming and, if triggered, high probability of going from point A to point B. Seeing points C & D, if they apply, and timing between charts still needs a lot of work. That said, I am enjoying the process of learning a lot more than a few years ago when I was still struggling and trying to figure it out.

Hey guys,
I am still trading off small charts, but I trade APPL off Big and Small charts. Most of you know, AAPL is the stock I have traded for years. I bought AAPL Feb. contracts on yesterday. I think it is about time for the stock to make it's winter/holiday move. I snipe it weekly off small charts, but after it broke the 116.95 resistance area off my 233 and closed above the 50MA, I entered towards the end of the day off the 233. I am kinda like NC Trader on this one. If I feel too much pressure, I will get out.

I am also a bit concerned about the little gap on the 233. I know it will eventually fill. Not my area of expertise either, but nevertheless, my knowledge of this stock and what I am seeing on the charts are telling me it is going up.

One of the most critical contributing factors to why I entered yesterday is, RTT research says, it has gone up 10 of the past 10 years. That trend starts tomorrow (Nov.20-27). My plan is, if I get enough "fat" underneath me within the next week or two, I am riding through the winter months.

I think it is important to sometimes go out on that limb and put your trade out there before it develops. I am not a guru at BC trading, and might belly up on this trade, but I have placed similar trades before, and they normally do one or two things. They go sideways and wash me out, or they go in my favor. I am open to criticism. Well, positive criticism. BC traders, if you see a huge red flag, put it out there for me. I would love to hear your thoughts.

Props to yah for putting your trade out there. FWTZ is always a high probability for that grind higher into Christmas so you will probably be ok. However, my only concern on AAPL is the Weekly chart. The flow on the chart looks sideways to down to me. I would say red candle next week. Now that is clearly subjective through the work that I have done in the market and for your sake I hope I am wrong. Ha. I hope it works out big time for yah man!!

Kudos! It takes a lot to throw a trade that is still in process out to the world. The following is just my opinion. From a recent history perspective the odds are in your favor over the next few days, then mixed until around mid-December when stock history turns significantly in your favor. For full disclosure I look for 5 to 10 day historical trends going back no more than 5 years (typically the past 3 or 4). Just my style as recent history is more important in my process. If you look at 2 to 4 weeks trends then I would not be surprised if the result is 10 of 10 to the upside. Given my shorter term / history perspective, the next week or so is in your favor, then mixed (some 50/50, 60/40, etc.) until mid-December when a strong historical bias kicks in to the upside. You also could have the overall market seasonal grind up working for you.

All of that said, it is "all about the indicators" and technicals. Charts are showing overhead obstacles that need to be overcome. Definitely need to work out / work thru the $121 - $122 area. I can go either way on next weekly candle but concur with fireman as I have a bias toward red. I think the key is to see if it can blow through $121/$122 area with ease like a hot knife going through butter. Right now the short term trend is looking tired so I would want to see new life / momentum in your direction. Otherwise you have some choppy, sideways up and down coming. That would be overall summary prediction. Sideways, choppy, with some type of pullback in the foreseeable future but overall rising with historical norm if you are looking at 3 to 4 weeks. Again, just an observation and I am certainly not a pro. Please do not let anything I have said influence your decision. Putting my thoughts out there and then looking back at the end of December also helps me learn :-)

NCT

Guys, thanks so much for your candid feedback. I have been in Panama City Beach Florida on vacation with my family since November 23, so I glimpsed at the charts and did not like what I saw on the 24th. I read your responses also and could clearly see the days of choppiness well on it's way. Unfortunately, after trading off small charts for so long, I totally disregarded the signals off the Weekly Chart. I feel a little stupid about that because I know better. It is amazing how spot on you guys were. Anyway, I did not want to ride through that potential choppy period based on the size of my position, limited time to look at charts, and my gut feelings. I entered off the 233, so I wanted to exit off the 233. When my lines turned down and the MACD started to converge on the first candle (23rd), I was on the road and did not want to ride through it and have charts on my mind while on vacation, so I exited. I am glad I did.

If my initial plan was to trade the evidence and not predict my destiny, it was a pretty good trade, As I trade a bit off the big charts, I will simply trade the evidence. Based on what I was taught, if my decision chart was 233, my exit chart needs to be the 233. The 233 clearly showed, "Exit" on the 23rd.

I will not wear you guys out with this, or continue to pick on your brain, but again, I appreciate your responses, and will learn from your analysis.

Don't feel bad... I bought calls on amazon on 11-11-15 after noon of that day. I was up about $1850.00 at the close and got greedy. The next morning the 1850.00 was gone plus 300 to 400 more. Lol. I dumped the position quick and thought of the GW story about the "train going over the cliff." I'm working on trading off of the big charts to get away from this kind of trading. Take care.

All,

I hope djpl8 does not mind me using AMZN 11/11 as a big chart example. I used to see this quite frequently in the forum: don't know what to do if big charts and small charts disagree, get into perfect short chart trade only to have it go off a cliff, the small charts always seem to lead the big charts but when I get in it never seems to work out, etc. For those that are still confused the larger trend always rules (i.e, big charts take precedence). Big chart traders would have had AMZN on their shortlist for a quick pullback (decline) by the close of 11/10 or open of 11/11 to watch. Those that still follow GW, and accept the info at face value, would be expecting a decline of $90 or so. Someone more seasoned would probably see the $90 as unrealistic with a more conservative estimate of $40 to $50 decline. The target would be two BB areas on Daily and 233 which are close to overlapping and happen to agree with the $50ish target. Yes, you can call me out and say it is easy to see in hindsight but it did exactly as taught. This trade would be a quick trade with expectation of leaving at first sign of exit due to calendar and other signs on the charts. How do I get this? Some info proprietary that cannot be discussed due to NDA. The rest as follows based on the 11/11 picture. I am using Alchem to show exactly how the charts looked at 1:23 on 11/11.

1. Weekly outside TBB - as GW used to say "no air" It can continue going up but from a probabilistic stand point a pull back inside of the bands is more likely. For the statisticians out there the TBB represents a 2 standard deviation move from the mean. No, the market is not evenly distributed but a guy by the name of John Bollinger determined that roughly 80% of all price action remains inside of the bands. On a side note, for new Survival students and old DE students you have autos forming and trigger ready. Did not call out triggers in the pic as this was not taught in all classes.

2. Daily SRSI > 80, histo trending down, trigger ready, autos

3. 233 TBB, autos, potential divergence on multiple indicators. Did not mention 377 but those that are familiar can see the obvious.

The point in all this is that the next good move will more than likely be down to allow the charts to reset and the weekly to pull back inside of the bands. That said, given Weekly chart picture a short term continuation up is possible but near term sideways back into bands is more likely. Any trades to the upside on 11/11 using short charts would be risky. It should a quick hit it and quite it / get out as soon as possible. This is the type of short chart trade Darcy would never do as there was no room for the bigger charts to move in the direction of her short charts without first resetting.

Again, no offense to anyone. I am in the same boat and learning. Just thought this would be a good example to share. Big charts in this example should paint a picture to warn any short chart trader to be extremely careful. Hopefully by sharing it could help save someone in the future.

NCT,

Ya left off one little tid bit. Hehehe.

Both the Comp and the Dow were moving lower. No indication from either of them on 11/11/15 that they were moving higher. I believe GW has mentioned something about the "market" a time or two. *a touch of sarcasm*

Kudos to you djpl8 for hoping out of the trade when you saw it wasn't working. No loss is wasted if you can learn something from it. Please, DO NOT beat yourself up over it!!!

Great insight NCT and RichieRick, thanks for sharing.

NCT,

Is your screen shot from Alchemcharts? How do you like it, compared to Qcharts or TOS? I'm still on StrategyDesk, but have no idea how much longer TDAmeritrade will support it. Just curious to know Pros/Cons of Alchemcharts from yourself and others, many thanks in advance.

Kind regards,
RaleighTrader

Thank you for the info. That was a lot of advice, I did't expect that, but I appreciate it. No, i'm not as hard on myself about trades anymore. I'm starting to learn that losses are part of the process and as long as you make money you are going to have to learn to emotionally accept losses. I'm still trying to get the 233 mindset down for larger swing trades.

*** 12/5/2015 - Moving my response regarding thoughts on Alchem vs. other trading platforms to the Alchem Chart thread. Link below. Just trying to keep things tidy ***


Alchem Charts

NCT



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/05/2015 11:31AM by NCTrader.