Seasonality Feature - TOS

I've added a TOS feature to my charts and I find it very interesting. TOS has a feature that shows the stock's seasonality by averaging the % return for any given time range (1 year, 5 year, etc...)

Here is one for FB showing the 5 year seasonality and comparing it to today's action. I think it's interesting because we got a FP down on the Daily, but the Seasonality clearly shows that this dip is common and that you could expect a resumption of the uptrend.

I'm not sure exactly what the best way to post the chart here is but you can retrieve the Seasonality by right clicking your chart , selecting Style, then Chart Mode, then Seasonality!

Sonic,

I do use the TOS seasonality chart along side my TS set up to help gauge a potential move but only for confirmation. In the past I am guilty of getting too caught up in past history and expecting it to repeat exactly going forward. I think it is a nice to know and one of the reasons I originally subscribed to RTT. That said you do have to be careful. FB started trading in mid 2012. The 5 year history you see in the seasonality chart is based on two years worth of data (2012 and 2013). If that is enough to give you additional comfort then by all means go with it. I prefer to see at least 4 or 5 years with 3 of 4 or 4 of 4 all doing the same thing before I consider history. I am not suggesting I am right - just my comfort zone. I work with a bunch of stats guys that will tell you 3 or 4 years of data is not statistically significantly. I agree but my argument is this. If you are going to be in a trade would you prefer to have past history in your direction or opposite your direction? I prefer to have history in my favor but will trade against history if the big charts and current market give me a reason to do so. Bottom line is that I want to know the history so that I can make an informed decision. If history is in my favor I may give the position a bit more room to breathe whereas if history is against me I am looking for any little hiccup to exit my position. Take that for what it is worth. A lot of people make money basing their decisions on historical norms.

NCT

Here's a couple recent upside historic trends/Seasonality I'm looking at:

SWN

BTU (practice trade cause crummy fundamentals IMHO)


I recently traded boldly on JDSU based on the current evidence (charts) and the history. Class 2 stuff!

I've begun noting these in my Stock Traders Almanac for use in coming year.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/30/2014 06:45PM by Spang67.

According to TOS, the Dow futures should start moving really well pretty soon to the upside...