Real Money Trades

I decided to try and start a thread for posting practice and real money trades for folks to look at, provide commentary and offer feedback to help one another.

I just got into a big chart trade with FANG. Dec 75 Call at $6. FP up Daily, E signal on 144Min, MACD improving on weekly, Monthly has support at 8W MA. Some downsides are that the stock is trading below the 8 week MA and monthly MACD is worsening. There is a lot of news about the "strong" dollar trade which would lower oil prices and hence FANG would go down.

Please let me know what you think!

-- 10/1 Update: The market is in a bloodbath (literally). The Indices have given up the 50 day moving average. I am planning on exiting my trade tomorrow morning. However, in recent years I have seen that around this time and when the markets hit longer term MA's it can turn pretty aggressively. I see a few down signals to the downside that look pretty interesting but hesitant due to this possible turn

-- 10/2 am update: I noticed that the monthly MACD is down for Sep and also Oct...it hasn't done this for a LONG time...pretty much since 2011 or 2012...I plan on exiting FANG today, hopefully on a nice bounce!

-- 10/2 AM: I exited at $4.10 on my position. A pretty big loss about 30%. I was too aggressive with the Weekly and should have waited for better evidence that the Weekly was going to turn to the upside. Overall, all energy stocks over past few days have been battered.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 10/02/2014 09:53AM by sonicwave.

Sonic, the new thread sounds great.

A couple things about the FANG trade. The D chart does look good from a mechanical standpoint. However it does not appear that the W chart is done going down. It does look like it could be coming soon though as support looks to be close at what is going to be a laminated 50 ma and BBB.

What would have stopped me from entering this play would have been the over all market at this point. It is wrestling hard with the 50 MA on the nas and s&p. It has been way to volatile in either direction lately to really know which way we are headed. It appears that down has been winning lately. Also if you look at some of the oil sub indexes the move in oil over the last couple days looks more like an oversold bounce rather then a turn in direction.

I have a few trades for the thread.

PNRA Put 233 Entry 9/22 Exit 9/24 930 233 candle close. This was a loss.
Still holding my TRN stock and the calls are still open. I also purchased Puts on TRN on 9/22 off the 233. Trade is still going.
PHM Puts bought on 9/19 off the 233. This trade is still going.

Hope things are going well.

FM



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/30/2014 01:00PM by fireman1984.

Fireman, thanks for replying so quickly. I agree with your comments. I could have been undisciplined trying not to "miss" getting some action and prematurely got into the FANG trade. It was not a perfect trade. When I get a chance I am going to check out your trades. Thanks!

Great idea but concur with fireman. The weekly does not appear to be done going down quite yet. If I were going to consider I would have been looking at a possible 233 or 144 with Daily supporting. For the record I would not be in this trade due to potential profit opportunity, the weekly, and possible market turn. Entry around 76.76 at the close on 9/29 with heavy resistance around 78 / 79 only leaves a couple bucks in the stock which translates to maybe a buck in the option if all goes according to plan. Even if you waited until today after it pulled back you still only have a few bucks potential to the upside. It could also drop to 70. A couple bucks to the upside vs. six to the downside is not worth it to me. I prefer better odds. I

As for the charts IMHO I personally would not count the MACD on weekly as improving at the time you made the post. At that point you are only 1.5 days into a candle that represents 5 days (30% complete). It can easily change. Even if today happened to be Thursday I do not see enough positive info on the MACD to warrant counting based on my rules. I need clear evidence of improving, turning, etc. Putting that aside and trying to be positive you might catch a short term break. Keep an eye on your 144 / 89. Both have a clear gap up and pull back to test the gap. Both appear to be holding for now even though 89 indicators have turned. The 89 exhibits classic BB breakout / expansion then pullback to test rising 21MA (book: Bollinger on Bollinger Bands). Typically you want to see a bit more momentum that lasts longer but the pattern suggests a further bounce to test the high and possibly the 78 area. I would definitely keep an eye on that 78 price level if you see a pop. A lot of resistance overhead on several charts with a weekly chart that does not appear to be done going down and a market that seems like it wants to go down. For anyone that reads price action the stock is still making a series of lower pivot highs and lower pivot lows (based on price trend is down).

As an aside and to your point in another post about the market or Dow seasonality chart suggesting a positive move in the foreseeable future keep in mind that October in general can be very volatile in either direction. Regardless of the catalyst if we start to see any type of real selling with sustained follow through then remember that fund managers have until the end of October to make any adjustments to their portfolio for their fiscal year end. Typically selling can be to dump losers and pick up a few winners to look better on the year end statements. Given the grind up since spring one could argue that a fund manager might decide to lock in profits if the market continues falling further exacerbating the selling pressure. Just a theory. No one really knows which is why we watch the charts and trade in that direction.

Best of luck on the trade!

NCT

I just bought three call contracts on NFLX. My basis is that it is down 8.5. I have had some success trading the 5 horsemen (AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, BIDU, LNKD) when they have moved > 5.00 in a day.

No charts, no news, just the price move. Key factor is to buy enough time to allow for stock to make move!

Mtut,

I see the premise for the call and put buying after a move in stocks such as these. However my concern would be at a time like this when the markets are beginning to enter a time where they move in one direction for longer periods of time, the FWTZ. Isn't there a greater possibility for taking a fairly substantial loss? Do you have a loss tolerance on these trades?

FM

These 5 stocks are highly volatile and do not necessarily follow the market. The purpose of buying time is to allow for the possibility of the stock moving big against you. I played TSLA down on its way up from 200 - 260. I did take a small loss but I learned that the market maker will constantly adjust the option prices and that they will retain some value up until expiration. I often trade these stocks using the current week weekly options, sometimes buying on Thursday that which expires Friday. I only buy one contract and look to make 5.00. I also trade with money that I can afford to lose, so the gamble of trading options is always in the proper perspective.

I am working on refining my entry points but I do not believe that it is all that significant. My current position is DOWN 1.75 per contract or -525.00



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/01/2014 09:00PM by mtut.

As of 1400 hrs my trade of NFLX is now UP 1.95 or 585.00. The stock is up 8.14 for the day.


NFLX close today UP 11.18 My option is UP 3.55 or 1065.00 for three contracts



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/02/2014 03:10PM by mtut.

Nice trade mtut. I just looked at NFLX.. I hope held on to the trade through today. Wouldn't blame you if you didn't, but if you did, should be a nice profit.

I am still long NFLX but should exit today and look to play it down.

Buy when the crowd is selling and sell when the crowd is buying!!


13:00 10/3 Have decided to stay in NFLX. I think it might move another 20.00 from here. Will make a decision closer to 16:00



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/03/2014 12:03PM by mtut.

This market certainly can make you sea sick, but the good news is.....volatility makes us money.

New trades for me today were:

JAZZ Calls 233 Entry
YY Calls 233 Entry

I also bought 200 shares of TMH. Looking to do a W&O style trade on this also.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/03/2014 05:17PM by fireman1984.

I bought a put on LAD Monday afternoon based on the following chart setup. LAD is an IDB 50 stock. Anyone looking for a good market related newspaper should take a free trial of Investors Business Daily.

Bought 1 position otm 46 days $3.70




Sold out of LAD UP 1.10 to get cash to buy NFLX calls based on it being down 6.00 and having what I think is an upward bias.
Paid 15.70 for 10 days of time (TUESDAY)

EOD (WEDNESDAY) NFLX call option is 19.35 UP 365.00 Still in play



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/08/2014 08:49PM by mtut.

THURSDAY

At today's open I sold my NFLX call position for 19.20 for a profit of 3.50 per contract. Bought NFLX put, 15 days of time, for 16.35 based on the fact that it was UP over 10.00 yesterday

I did the following trade recently:

Ticker: BITA
Jan 70 Put
Entry: 10/2
Exit: 10/8 (before the big rise)

Honestly, I had my doubts about this trade. It appears it worked...my advice is to just follow the system!

I applied the concept of IVR / IVS and saw a triangle converging. the FP down signal came on the Daily so I decided to enter the following day. The market volatility was very hard to stomach. If I was truly seasoned I would have waited for markets to close and just check Indicators. I was pretty much Happy in Seattle when I sold. The stock has moved much lower now. Also, it never even broke above the 8MA on the Daily. Another one I had sold too early!

I bought GS and CMCSA calls near EOD Friday based on my current signal setup. Same system gave me profitable trades on QQQ (calls on the 22nd),
SCTY (calls on 20th) and CMG (puts on 10th). Have not traded NFLX lately. Should have bought calls the day of earnings. Did a call practice trade on CMG day of earnings. Stock was down over 45.00 and made over 5 dollars



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/25/2014 02:00PM by mtut.

Sold GS today up $1 CMCSA is up .20 Bought a PUT on TGT near EOD

Got signal for COF Long play but don't like to be in more than 2 trades at a time



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/28/2014 09:25PM by mtut.

Sold CMCSA for .20 profit but lost .60 on TGT put

Bought CMCSA puts yesterday near the close off the Daily chart. Sold this a.m. around 9:45 for .80 profit

My signals showed a Put on SE. Bought 9 day expiration for .72 Down .02 at close

Took .50 on the SE put and bought a put on TYC for Friday

Sold my put on TYC today for .50 gain. Slow mover, took 5 trading days. Bought at EOD yesterday, NFLX call based on it was down $17 for the day. paid 1.28 sold for 2.28 bought TSLA call today at 3:50 paid 1.80 for 8 days of time

Bought the AMZN Jan 335 call right before the close yesterday and sold at the open this morning for a $215 gain. Criteria for buying... didn't have any perfect setup. The stock is still going up from a gap a few weeks ago and there was strong buying yesterday. On a weekly chart it may be at the 50ma but none of the indicators are turning over yet. I would have held if I would have purchased out further in time. Just felt like doing a trade using a big chart and gut instincts.

Exited my TSLA trade today down .60 Stock seem to more or less trade sideways this week. Anyone know if it is best to not trade during a holiday shortened week?

I am sure others might trade during holiday shortened weeks but I am a bit skeptical due to very thin volume. If I have a signal and a trade appears to be jumping off the screen screaming "trade me" then I will but will be looking for any potential reason to exit. I have been slapped around a few times over the years trading around holidays where I had a signal during a thinly traded day or two only to have the truck back up all over me when the market returned to normal. Not so much since I started using the new Survivor thought process along with consideration of E Charts but it is hard to forget the past.

Sorry, new to the group but not new to GW...Can you tell me what "E Charts" is please....thx

JBKCP,
Check out technical analysis for dummies 2nd edition, chapter 12, or read Darcy2's posts on this board.

WNQ

Thanks, I noticed another trader listed the TOS programming for an E Chart looks like a three MA cross over....

BOUGHT CALLS ON ADSK. SUPPORT AT 58.45 DATING BACK TO EARLY OCT HIGHS

Sold ADSK this a.m. for .50 profit

Here is a capture of my current trades as of 14:32 est. I have been working on trading based on price, with attention given to support and resistance levels on both weekly and daily charts. The spread on V was about .80 so I am not far from entry.





Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/19/2014 02:33PM by mtut.